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A day after polling concluded for Assembly elections in five States, exit polls indicated a continuation of the BJP’s victory run.
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP looked set to emerge the largest party, or even a clear winner, after 20 years. With some variation, the polls predicted a victory for the party in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
The Congress was predicted to wean Punjab away from the Akali-BJP combine after ten years of the alliance’s rule.
It was a setback for debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which was hoping to form its second State government after Delhi. Although the AAP was shown to have done well in Punjab, it lagged the Congress in most polls.
In UP, the BJP was the favourite to form the government, with the Times Now-VMR poll giving the party 190-210 seats in the 403-member House. Both the India Today-Axis, as well as NewsX-MRC polls gave the BJP 185 seats, short of a majority, but comfortably placed to form the government with the help of regional outfits.
However, ABP-CSDS and India TV-CVoter predicted a much closer contest, and a hung Assembly. The ABP poll gave the BJP between 164-176 seats and 156-169 seats to the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance.
The factor common to all was the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s steep fall to third position, with no poll giving it over 93 seats.
Akhilesh reaches out to Maya With the exit poll results came an intriguing statement from Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav: that it was better to tie up with Mayawati than to see the State placed under President’s rule in the event of a hung Assembly.
The Samajwadi Party chief is thus the first to put his foot forward for an alliance with a rival, caste-based party. The SP’s alliance with the BSP in the 1990s had edged the BJP out in UP, even in the heady days of the Ramjanmabhoomi movement.
The only saving grace for the Congress was Punjab, where the party, steered by former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, was predicted to defeat the ruling Akali-BJP. The exit polls showed a decimation of the ruling combine, with even the most optimistic pollsters giving them not more than 15 seats in the 117-member Assembly.
The India Today-Axis poll indicated 62-71 seats for the Congress, giving it a clear majority. News24-Today’s Chanakya predicted a tie between the Congress and the AAP. IndiaTV-C Voter was the only one that predicted an AAP victory, giving the party 59-67 seats.
Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur In the 70-member Uttarakhand Assembly, the India Today-Axis poll gave the BJP between 46-53 seats. News24-Chanakya gave the BJP 53 seats and the Congress 15 seats while the NewsX-MRC poll gave the BJP 38 and the Congress, 30.
The BJP is likely to retain Goa with the support of independent winners as exit polls predicted 15 seats for the ruling party in the 40-member Assembly.
The party also continued its march into North-Eastern India with the polls predicting a victory for it in Manipur.
The India TV poll gave 25-31 seats to the BJP, leaving the ruling Congress behind at 17-23 seats.
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