IMD declares cyclone alert in the Bay of Bengal as ‘low’ forms

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared a cyclone alert in the Bay of Bengal after it spotted a low-pressure area this morning over the South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea with promising attributes which could it take all the way unlike its predecessor last week.

The low is likely to concentrate into a depression over the central parts of the South Bay by Friday and further intensify into a cyclone over South-West and adjoining West-Central by Saturday evening.

The IMD expects it move to the North-West (initially eyeing the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts) but later re-curve to the North-North-East (generally towards Bangladesh-Myanmar).

Monsoon onset likely

Along with this, conditions will become favourable for the advance of the 2020 South-West monsoon over the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands around May 16 (Saturday).

The IMD has also issued adverse weather alert for the South and Central Bay and the adjoining Andaman Sea from Friday onwards.

The likely weather scenarios include light to moderate rainfall at most places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Friday and Saturday.

The Andaman Islands are also likely to experience heavy rainfall at a few places on these two days. Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr over the South and adjoining Central Bay on Friday, 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr may prevail over the same region on Saturday.

Warning to fishermen

Wind speeds may likely increase to become cyclonic (gale-force) winds (65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr) over South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay from Saturday evening. Squally winds with speeds reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely to prevail over the Andaman Sea on Friday and Saturday.

The sea condition will be rough to very rough (wave heights of 8-13 ft) over the South and adjoining Central Bay and the Andaman Sea on Friday-Saturday afternoon and very rough to high (20-30 ft) over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay from Saturday evening. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the South and Central Bay from Friday. Those who are out at sea over these regions are advised to return to coasts by tomorrow (Thursday).

Monsoon flows consolidating

Earlier in the day, the IMD had said that conditions are expected to become favourable for advance of the monsoon into some parts of the South-East Bay of Bengal, the South Andaman Sea and the Nicobar Islands in three days (May 16, Saturday), followed by the onset of the seasonal rains thereafter.

What is seen as aiding the denouement is the formation of the low, as per the two-day outlook of the IMD. The low will help consolidate the south-westerly monsoon flows across the Equator, incremental westerly bands of which would precipitate the onset of seasonal rains sequentially over Sri Lanka, an intermediate port of call, and Kerala in mainland India, over the subsequent fortnight.

Pit-stop in Maldives

Before the rains can arrive over the Bay of Bengal, they report at an important pit-stop over the Maldives Islands, farther to the West-South-West and closer to the Equator.

The Maldives Meteorological Service said this morning that scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the country, with showers likely being heavy over the Central and Southern atolls. Importantly, winds are becoming increasingly monsoon-friendly from the previous day.

The Maldives agency said that surface winds will prevail from the south-west/west at 21-37 km/hr across the Southern atolls and West/North-West at 12-29 km/hr elsewhere.

Winds may gust up to speed of 72 km/hr during showers. Winds are expected to turn more Westerly/South-Westerly and pick up speed in time for the actual onset of the monsoon over the Maldives, normal period for onset of which is around mid-May. On Wednesday, clouds hovered over the Maldives as well as over South-East Bay of Bengal.

COMMENT NOW