Conditions are becoming favourable for the arrival of the South-West monsoon over the extreme South-East Bay of Bengal over the next two-three days, the India Met Department (IMD) said on Thursday, kicking off its monsoon watch.

Seasonal rains are set to begin over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and the larger South-East Bay, the entry point in the Indian territorial waters. The next pit-stop is Sri Lanka before the rains break over Kerala on mainland India.

Alongside the South-East Bay, the monsoon is likely to set in over Southern Myanmar lying to the North-North-East any time from Saturday, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

It saw ‘moderate monsoon’ conditions prevailing in the region, while hinting at the possibility of a low-pressure area forming over the Andaman Sea and the South Bay. The IMD has already traced a cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and the adjoining Malay Peninsula on Thursday.

The 24 hours ending on Thursday saw heavy to very heavy rainfall being reported at isolated places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Satellite pictures saw thunderstorms walloping the islands during the rest of the day on Thursday.

Heavy rain forecast

Heavy to very heavy rainfall had been forecast at isolated places very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands for the day. The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall for the islands and the North-Eastern States as well as parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the next few days as pre-monsoon activity gathers steam. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over North-East India, the South Peninsula and the Bay Islands from May 21 to 23. Isolated to scattered rain has been forecast for the Lakshadweep Islands as well.

SASCOF outlook

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) that met in Kathmandu, Nepal, in April has already forecast normal rainfall as being likely from June-September over most parts of South Asia.

However, above-normal rainfall is likely over some northern parts of the region, eastern coastal areas of Peninsular India, Sri Lanka, southern parts of Myanmar, and most parts of the Andaman Nicobar Islands.

Meanwhile, North-West India is again bracing for western disturbances, which are expected to sustain thunderstorms and lightning, hail and heavy rain activity over the North and East for the next 2-3 days.

 

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