India, US fated to be strategic partners: think tank

India and the US are fated to be strategic partners because of the ever shifting dynamics and inherent tensions involved in the US-China-India triangle, Ashley J Tellis, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Asia Society in Mumbai recently.

Analysing the aims, strategies and consequences of the three powers, Tellis said the US will remain a power in Asia and will not go away.

It will seek to preserve its pre-eminent position to strengthen the liberal order in Asia, by forging stronger alliances, expanding them, and deepening economic integration.

China will try to maintain its long-term growth record and use trade to re-establish its hegemony.

This would involve deeper economic integration not only with the US but also intra-Asian integration – where it is both a source of raw materials as well as market for the Asian region.

This will constrain the choices for other countries in the region, who would possibly become wary of opposing China. China aims to eject the US from its role as a security guarantor of the region, he said.

India aims to accelerate its economic development like China and improve its status with the liberal order (unlike China) while also protecting its security interests vis-à-vis China, he said. This will involve forging strong economic ties with both the US and China, and a privileged economic relationship with the US.

While it is in the US’ interests to strengthen India, it will remain an ‘unobligated partnership’, he said.

He suggested that no matter how close the relationship between India and US gets, there is a limit India will never cross and it will not, therefore, be an ‘ally’ in the conventional sense or ever cede its strategic decisions to the US or any other power.

Responding to a query from co-panelist Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic and Strategic Affairs Editor of The Hindu regarding the US’ policy towards Pakistan, he conceded that it may come across occasionally as smacking of hypocrisy.

“Pakistan is a deep dilemma for the US and has tested the limits of US policy creativity. It was a deeply conflicted policy, which is not sufficiently appreciated in India,” he said.

There was no joyous enthusiasm in providing military aid to Pakistan. He said, “We do it holding our noses.”

He added, “We dislike the idea of giving lethal weaponry to Pakistan but are compelled to do it for US national security interests.”

He likened the US-Pakistan relationship as a “pact with the devil” in which you have to sometimes feed the beast in order to ward off other evils.

Asked if US would ‘enforce’ the recent Hague Tribunal decision that went against China in the South China Sea dispute, Tellis said the tribunal had upheld the fundamental legitimacy of freedom of navigation in perpetuity. The US’ presence will in action repudiate Chinese claims.

As a consequence of the judgement, the US Navy can sail as closely as possible to the ‘disputed’ islands – “as close as 12 feet consistent with the safety of the ship,” he said.

At the same time, the objective is to get China to do the right thing and not embarrass them, he clarified.

The US is prepared to create space for them to climb down from their aggressive posture, he added.

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