Weather watch. Intense western disturbances rule out cold wave for North India this week

The first of the two intense western disturbances headed for North West India has docked in over Iran with a limb extending into Afghanistan this (Tuesday) morning. Even from this distance, it would be able to influence winter weather over North West India and rule out a cold wave for at least a week.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the parent western disturbance will likely induce an offspring cyclonic circulation to form over West Rajasthan by tomorrow (Wednesday). It is expected to kick-up snowfall, rain/thunderstorms, lightning and hail over the hills and plains of North West India.

A few model projections hint that the successor western disturbance checking in from Afghanistan-Pakistan two to three days hence would be an even more intense system and set up a full-fledged low-pressure area, if not a rare depression, as it charges in across the border into Rajasthan.

The sheer intensity and depth of the second western disturbance-induced circulation (‘low’ or depression) may cause the wind field over almost the entire Arabian Sea, the Central Nand adjoining Peninsular India and the Bay of Bengal to shift direction in alignment to the North-East.

Sweep-in of moisture

The induced circulations from both the systems will sweep lots of moisture from the Arabian Sea and dump it as rain or snow over the hills and plains of North, North West and Central India and interact with remnant easterlies from the Bay of Bengal to generate some wet weather over the South as well.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees a broad corridor of wet weather covering the entire eastern half of the country (East, East-Central, South East Peninsula) until January 19. This is after the first western disturbance triggers heavy rain over North-Wes India until January 11.

Among the areas likely receiving heavy rainfall are North and West Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, the US agency said.

The IMD said that fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall may lash the hills today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday). Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh today and isolated heavy to very heavy tomorrow. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over the mountainous Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand tomorrow (Wednesday).

Isolated hailstorms may line up are over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh today and over Uttarakhand tomorrow. Scattered to fairly widespread rain is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, North Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh until Thursday.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Punjab on Wednesday while isolated thunderstorms accompanied with hailstorm may roll out over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. It is at this point that the second western disturbance starts affecting North-West India (from Thursday night).

‘Sweet spot’ for circulations

As mentioned earlier, this too will give birth to a potent cyclonic circulation over South-West Rajasthan, the sweet spot for such systems to form, the next day (Friday). The IMD said the circulation will spark ‘high’ moisture feeding from Arabian Sea on both Friday and Saturday.

Scattered rainfall/snowfall may hit the hills of North-West India on Thursday. Its intensity and distribution may increase thereafter with fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall over the region until Saturday with its peak intensity on Friday and Saturday.

Raised intensity level

Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh on both these days and over over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Saturday. Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall/thunderstorms are likely over the plains and adjoining Central India until Sunday.

Isolated hailstorms may roam the plains over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh on Friday and Saturday, the IMD said.

Meanwhile, Ramachandra Seshadri, a Tamil Nadu-based Vedic meteorologist, said that severe blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall are likely during January 7-16 with ‘peaks’ from January 9-11 and January 13-16 (avalanches). An almost similar outlook is valid for January 25-31.

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