Japanese agency retains normal rainfall outlook for N-E monsoon

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 19, 2019 Published on September 19, 2019

A satellite image taken on September 19, 2019 at 1500 IST   -  IMD website

Positive vibes from a late rally of the South-West monsoon could rub-off on the subsequent North-East monsoon, with a Japanese forecaster maintaining a normal outlook for rainfall from October to December this year.

In its updated forecasts, the Application Laboratory of Jamstec, the Japanese national forecaster, predicts a largely normal rain regime being extended into the New Year (2020) as well.

A normal winter is projected for most of the country, except in East India and parts of West Madhya Pradesh, where it would be colder. No major water stress is indicated into March-May-April next year, i.e., the early summer of 2020.

The major factors driving the weather pattern of the country during this period would be the moderate to strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event and a close-to-neutral El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

Positive conditions

The positive IOD, marked by elevated temperatures in the West of the Indian Ocean compared to the East, has mainly sustained the excess run of the South-West monsoon, especially over Central India.

The tropical Pacific has been found to oblige, with the monsoon managing to log in a surplus of 5 per cent as of Wednesday, and is preparing to drop more rain into the last week of the month.

A positive IOD had emerged quickly in May, the Application Laboratory said, adding that it is now reflecting a scenario similar to that of the strong events of 1994, 1997, and 2006.

The event will persist into this year’s autumn, and decay in winter. “We are observing a co-occurrence of a positive IOD and an El Niño-like state in autumn as we did in 1994 and 2018,” the Japanese agency observed.

Fresh surge

It suspects that an El Niño-like pattern will continue to prevail in the tropical Pacific from this winter through the first half of 2020, which could hold the key to the performance of the monsoon of that year.

Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending this (Thursday) morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls being recorded over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, as a fresh surge of the monsoon emerged.

It was heavy to very heavy rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, East Uttar Pradesh and Rayalaseema while being heavy over parts of Konkan, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Heavy rains

Outlook for Friday said that heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls may lash Konkan and Goa, while being heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra.

It would be heavy over Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh (both recording deficient rain during the season so far), East Rajasthan, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Coastal Karnataka.

Strong winds may prevail over East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea, South Gujarat and North Maharashtra coasts. Squally weather has been warned of over South-East Bay of Bengal. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

Published on September 19, 2019
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