Kingmakers of Karnataka. JD(S) reaches for the throne on the shoulders of defectors

“God alone knows what goes on in Karnataka politics, with the possible exception of Deve Gowda (former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda),” goes a popular adage in the southern state. It is proving true again in the runup to the 2023 Assembly elections, as the Janata Dal (S) party and its first family — Gowda’s extended clan — have displayed characteristic political acrobatics in rounding up 27 possible winners from among the top defectors from the Congress and the BJP.

With their entry into its fold, the unabashedly opportunistic party, which makes up with ambition what it lacks in ground support, is again hoping to be kingmaker in the event of a hung verdict. The prominent defectors from the two main political rivals are spread across North Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka and the coastal belt, where the JD(S) does not have a strong base. Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy is displaying skills that came useful when he broke alliance with the Congress in 2006 to get together with the BJP to become Chief Minister. He broke off with the BJP, too, when it was time for him to make way for BS Yeddiyurappa as CM as promised, and plunged the state into President’s rule. He then decided to support Yeddiyurappa, after all, only to again withdraw, forcing Yeddiyurappa to resign barely a week after becoming the BJP’s first-ever CM in South India.

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Now, Kumaraswamy appears ready to overlook the fact that it was NR Santosh, a BJP leader related to Yeddiyurappa, who had played a major role in poaching 17 MLAs from JD(S) and Congress in 2019 to topple his government and install the BJP in its place. Since Santosh has been denied a ticket by the BJP, Kumaraswamy has rolled out the red carpet for him. Santosh is now the JD(S) candidate from Arsikere.

The JD(S)’s scanner for potential winners has similarly zeroed in on another former BJP stalwart, Ayanur Manjunath, as its candidate for the Shivamogga city Assembly constituency. The door, in fact, is wide open for anyone with a winnability quotient; their party and political affiliations are immaterial. So, former BJP legislator MP Kumaraswamy and former Congress MLC Raghu Achar have been fielded as JD(S) candidates from Mudigere and Chitradurga Assembly seats, respectively. Senior Congress leader Anil Lad hopped over and has been fielded from Ballari city constituency. Similarly, in Mangaluru North, where the JD(S) is not very strong, Congress defector Mohiuddin Bawa has been fielded.

Old stronghold in Mysuru

But in the Old Mysuru region, where the party’s traditional support base among the Vokkaligas and Muslims is intact, its first family is contesting in full strength — Kumaraswamy from Channapatna and his son, Nikhil, from neighbouring Ramanagara. In this region, Kumaraswamy rues his association with the ruling BJP and targets its “communalism”. For good measure, he has underlined that “there is no threat from family-centric politics for the country. The threat is from the communal BJP”.

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He knows there is audience for it. In Karnataka, Muslims, who form 12.92 per cent of the electorate, are particularly agitated about the controversies raked up over hijab, halaal meat, Tipu Sultan, et al. In the southern region, they will vote strategically for the JD(S) and the Congress. In Channapatna, where Kumaraswamy is up against former actor and five-time winner from the constituency CP Yogeshwara, the consolidation of Vokkaligas and Muslims is formidable this time.

“Kumaraswamy has done a lot for us. The BJP is a dangerous party. You take my name and write — Kumaraswamy will win hands down,” said Iqbal, who runs a fruit shop in Channapatna.

Kumaraswamy would hope for his victory. But more than that, he would hope for a hung verdict in the state and the kingmaker’s role, yet again.

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