Kharif output may be down a tad at 137.73 mt

Foodgrains output during the current kharif season could be 137.73 million tonnes (mt), a tad lower than the 138.73 mt achieved in the previous kharif season, according to the first advanced estimate released by post-harvest management services company National Collateral Management Services Ltd (NCML) on Monday.

The production of rice, the major kharif crop, is estimated to rise slightly to 96.8 mt from the record level 96.39 mt of the previous Kharif season. The output of oilseeds and cotton is projected to increase by 9.1 per cent and 7.6 per cent to 22.57 mt and 37.5 million bales of 170 kg, respectively, over the third advance estimate by the Agriculture Ministry.

The monsoon rain in June defied forecasts of being normal and has been rather weak in many regions. Even as the rain is expected to pick up in July, the monsoon this year may be fragmented, giving non-continuous bouts of showers across different pockets, which may affect yields and production, the release said.

Even then, NCML expects a 7.7 per cent dip in pulses production to 8.32 mt, particularly on account of a double-digit decrease anticipated in the harvest of tur and urad.

Among oilseeds, soyabean is set to record a significant increase in acreage due to better price realisation by farmers in the previous season. Its production is estimated at a record 13.3 mt, 21.6 per cent higher than last year’s 10.93 mt.

The prices of maize ruled low throughout the year. As a result, some farmers are likely to shift to other crops including rice. According to NCML projections, the 2018-19 Kharif maize production is projected to fall to 19 mt against a record 19.81 mt last year. Bajra output, on the other hand, could go up slightly to 9.31 mt, against 9.08 mt last year. Sugarcane production, however, may surpass last year’s 355 mt to touch 360 mt, which would add challenges to the ongoing sugar glut.

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