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As expected, a low-pressure area has formed over the East-Central Arabian Sea off the Maharashtra coast, promising a fresh spell over an area in West India saturated with excess monsoon rain thus far during the season.
The India Met Department (IMD) has maintained a watch for the system to travel mostly over the sea and become 'more marked', before intensifying to become a monsoon depression over the next two days.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
Overseeing the proceedings is the East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence, whose presence from higher up in the atmosphere ensures the gradual calibration of the 'low' into a depression.
The shear zone runs roughly along the Goa latitude with two cyclonic circulations - one over Rayalaseema and the other East-Central Arabian Sea - which add further to the monsoon vigour.
In view of this, the IMD has predicted the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra for two more days until Sunday.
Isolated extremely heavy falls have been warned over North Konkan today (Friday). Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also forecast over Gujarat until Sunday.
Isolated extremely heavy falls have been forecast over Saurashtra, both tomorrow (Saturday) and the day after (Sunday) during what is expected to be the peak phase of activity of the depression.
HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WINDS
The detailed outlook for today (Friday) says that heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls would continue to lash isolated places over Konkan and Goa.
It would be heavy to very heavy over Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra and heavy at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and coastal Karnataka.
Strong winds with speeds reaching up to 50 km/hr may prevail over East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea, and the South Gujarat and North Maharashtra coasts.
Squally weather has been forecast over the South-East Bay of Bengal to the other side of the peninsula, bracing to throw up another 'low' soon. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
The detailed outlook for tomorrow (Saturday) says heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy falls, is likely over Saurashtra and Kutch.
FRESH BAY 'LOW'
It would be heavy to very heavy over Gujarat as well as Konkan and Goa and heavy over Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka.
Strong winds with an enhanced outer speed threshold of 55 km/hr, gusting to 65 km/hr, may prevail over North-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea and the Gujarat and Maharashtra coasts on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the IMD has retained the outlook for a fresh 'low' forming over the East-Central Bay of Bengal and the neighbourhood around September 24 (Tuesday next).
It would result in an increase in rainfall over moisture-stressed Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the three days from September 25 to 27.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy falls are likely over Central, East and North-East India.
Scattered to fairly widespread rains may break out over the rest of the country, except over West Rajasthan, where isolated rainfall is likely.
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