No worry clouds as IMD sees normal rains in Aug-Sept

With the last two weeks of July ending deficit rainfall over large parts of North-West India and Central India, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is pinning its hopes on a likely low-pressure area forming over the North Bay of Bengal to revive the monsoon in a resounding fashion from August 5.

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said the State government too has received an input to the effect from the IMD, which it has taken seriously in the context of experience from the recent past when such low-pressure areas have triggered massive floods and landslides during the second rainiest monsoon month of August. 

Heavy rains in South 

Currently engaged in a grim battle with spiralling Covid-19 transmissions, the State has already witnessed a round of heavy to very rainfall across many parts from a cyclonic circulation (graded lower than a low-pressure areas) currently located over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining coastal Tamil Nadu. 

Unlike this circulation that formed in situ (locally) over the Bay, the low-pressure area over the North Bay emerging next week would take birth out a circulation crossing in from West Pacific/South China Sea, and originating from a stronger system (depression) located this (Friday) morning to the South-East of Haikou, China. 

In the North Bay, the remnant circulation would grow into a low-pressure area and is projected to quickly cross the Odisha/West Bengal coast and race towards West and adjoining North-West India. This could ramp up the monsoon into the second week of August over most parts of the country. 

Rains for North-West India 

Both North-West India and Central India would be able to receive their quota, if not more, during this period, according to projections made by the IMD. Importantly, it also indicated the possibility of heavy to very rainfall over the South-West coast and the rest of the West Coast during this period. 

In fact, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and adjoining South Peninsula would not need to wait for the second week to witness the heavy rain events since the circulation over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Coastal Tamil Nadu would ensure that the current rain wave sustains during the interregnum. 

Short-term outlook 

A forecast outlook by the IMD for next 2-3 days us is follows: widespread rainfall with isolated heavy over Jammu Division, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, and Gujarat. 

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa and the Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during August 1-3 (Saturday to Monday). Heavy to very heavy falls are likely to continue over parts of Kerala today (Friday). 

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