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Exit polls on Thursday, at the end of Assembly elections in five States, predicted a mixed bag for the BJP. While the party is seen romping home in Assam, the polls give a clear edge to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. The pollsters were near unanimous in predicting a sweep for the DMK in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left front in Kerala.
The BJP was seen making significant gains in West Bengal but, barring the CNX-Republic poll, which showed a hung Assembly with the BJP having the edge, and Jan Ki Baat that predicted a sweep for the BJP with 174 seats in the 292-member Assembly, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was predicted to return to power. The predictions for the TMC getting a clear majority came from TimesNow/C-Voter, P-Marq and ETG, which gave the party between 158 and 169 seats, containing the BJP’s expansion to 115, 112 and 110 seats in an Assembly where the half-way mark is 147 seats.
But while Mamata Banerjee has an edge, her victory is not seen anywhere close to her 2016 earlier performance of winning 199 seats. According to the pollsters, the contest has narrowed with the BJP seen making a huge leap from the 34 seats it had in the outgoing House.
In Tamil Nadu, the pollsters were near unanimous in predicting a sweep for MK Stalin-led DMK. In the 234-member Assembly, the DMK was predicted to win a thumping majority. The Axis-MyIndia poll gave the DMK combine 175-195 seats while the P-Marq survey predicted that the Stalin alliance winning 165-190 seats. The ruling AIADMK trailed way behind in both these polls, seen getting 38-54 seats by the former and 40-65 by the latter. Today’s Chanakya showed the AIADMK getting 57+ seats and the DMK over 175.
In neighbouring Puducherry, the BJP seemed to be leading, with the ABP/C-Voter giving it 19-23 seats in the 30-member Assembly.
In Kerala, the incumbent Left-Led LDF was the pollsters’ favourite to retain power. The ABP/C-Voter poll showed the Left Front getting a slim majority of 71-77 seats with the Congress-led UDF bagging 62. The Axis-My India poll predicted a Left Front sweep with 104-120 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The BJP was predicted to get a maximum of 2 seats.
In Assam, although the contest seemed close, the pollsters saw a win for the ruling BJP. The ABP/C-Voter poll gave the BJP 58-71 seats and 53-66 to the Congress-AIUDF and BPF combine. The Axis-MyIndia poll predicted 75-85 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress-led alliance.
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