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Health authorities and the medical fraternity are keeping a close watch on the Covid-19 graph in Delhi and Mumbai and its signals for the rest of the country in terms of a peak or plateau of infections.
Down in Mumbai for 4th day
Mumbai reported a dip in Covid-19 cases on Tuesday for the fourth successive day, at 11,647. There were two deaths, according to a Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) health bulletin. The test positivity rate reportedly fell to 18.7 per cent from 28 per cent on Monday.
“The real numbers are masked as people isolate themselves at home and not testing. But the trend over the last four days definitely indicates a flattening,” Shashank Joshi who is on Maharashtra’s Covid-19 Taskforce, told BusinessLine . But it would have to be watched a little longer to make sure it is not a lull before the storm, he cautioned.
Plateauing in Delhi
In Delhi, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal sounded a similar positive note, hinting that the Capital may see a plateauing of cases. This, even as the Delhi government tightened curbs with cases reportedly mounting to 21,259 with the highest positivity rate of 25.65 per cent since May 5.
State Health Minister Satyender Jain told a TV channel: “In this week, definitely, we will see the peak and then we are likely to see the cases coming down.”
Easing in Chennai
Chennai also reported a slowing of daily new cases, with the growth rate at 5 per cent. Covid data analyst Vijayanand said this suggested a flattening of the curve. On Tuesday, 6,484 new cases with a test positive rate of about 19 per cent were reported.
Epidemiologist Jayaprakash Muliyil explains that “a peak is a retrospective diagnosis”. But looking at the trend from South Africa, in India, too, there would be a steep rise, many people will be infected and there will be a steep fall, he told BusinessLine , without indicating if some of the key metros were seeing their peaks. Muliyil is a member of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI).
Earlier projections were that India would hit the peak by the end of this month, with some suggesting rolling peaks across the country.
Marginal drop in cases
Almost as if to corroborate these developments, India registered a marginal dip in the new cases, up to Tuesday morning. A total 1,68,063 new cases were registered in the last 24 hours, down from 1,79,723 the previous day. The fatalities totalled 277 in the last 24 hours ended 8 am on Tuesday.
The total number of Omicron cases topped 4,400, with Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Delhi at 1247, 645 and 546 respectively, as on Tuesday morning.
With inputs from Delhi, Chennai Mumbai, Ahmedabad bureaus
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