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Monsoon may lose steam temporarily

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapauram | Updated on September 03, 2019 Published on September 03, 2019

Representative image   -  The Hindu

Global weather models agree with the India Met Department (IMD) that there would be a lull in the ongoing rainfall activity over parts of North-West India during the next three to four days. This is mainly because of the Indian monsoon being forced to share incoming flows with a developing typhoon over the North-West Pacific, named ‘Lingling.’ The typhoon is forecast to move away to the North-North-East to the Korean Peninsula.

Pacific typhoon impact

In fact, this would prevent the prevailing low-pressure area from ramping up to expected strength and start weakening over Central India and Gujarat. But only just, suspects the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service.

According to this agency, the Bay of Bengal will erupt with another low-pressure area soon after ‘Lingling’ disappears over the extra-tropics, bringing the monsoon back into full flow by the weekend.

It sees entire Central India, adjoining North-West India (except its Western fringes), the plains of North India as also the foothills being brought under extended wet cover until September 20.

The fact that the ‘low’ would likely be located, yet again, over the Odisha coast should mean associated rain gains for the West Coast and parts of adjoining Interior Peninsula.

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, the West Coast and Gujarat for the next two to three days.

‘More boxes to tick’

This would stand in contrast to the subdued rainfall regime over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and West Rajasthan. But it is too early to take a call on whether the monsoon has started to withdraw from West Rajasthan.

It normally begins the withdrawal process from September 1, and the area has been witnessing a lull over the past few days. But ‘there are more boxes to tick’ here before the Met department can take the final call.

Extended outlook from September 8 to 10 said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over East and adjoining Central India, North-East India and along the West Coast - and not over North-West India. According to the IMD’s wind-field projections, a fresh low-pressure area could form sooner than later consolidating the flows around a remnant of the predecessor over the plains of North India.

This, according to the US agency, could set up the context for the next ‘pulse’ of the monsoon covering Central India, parts of adjoining North-West India, South Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, as mentioned earlier.

Published on September 03, 2019
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