Kerala, and to an extent the North-East, has been receiving very heavy rainfall despite the monsoon going into a weak phase over the rest of the country.

The fundamentals continue to be just fine with the monsoon system as a whole, with strong cross-equatorial flows turning smartly off the Horn of Africa and further ahead across the Maldives and Sri Lanka.

No sign of low

These flows are also reaching India’s West Coast, more so across Kerala and coastal Karnataka, leading to a sustained precipitation as they blast into the orographic features,the Western Ghats.

The flows are being generated mostly due to storm activity in the North-West Pacific; they precipitate as they encounter land features over Maldives, Lakshadweep, India’s West Coast, the Bay of Bengal and South-East Asia.

There are currently two storms in the North-West Pacific, and both are travelling in a north-easterly direction, which doesn’t help the Indian monsoon.

Ideally, a low-pressure area in the Bay would have tapped into these flows midway and redirected some of it back towards the hinterland and brought in rain. But there is no sign of a ‘low’ forming just yet.

Activity next week

The best bet for it continues to be the June 25 to 29 window suggested by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction when it sees some activity getting initiated in the North Bay.

The Thiruvananthapuram Met Office said heavy rainfall (7-11cm in 24 hours) and very heavy rainfall (12-20cm in 24 hours) will continue for another three to four days.

Strong winds mainly from a westerly direction with speeds reaching 35- to 45 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr are lilely along Karnataka, Kerala coasts and over Lakshadweep area.

Rough seas and high waves are predicted along Karnataka (11- 12 ft); Kerala (11 ft) and Lakshadweep (11-12 ft). Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along these coasts.

Rains likely

Strong winds and high waves have been forecast also along the Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat coasts. The 24 hours ending on Thursday morning saw active monsoon conditions over Kerala with Manjeri and Nilambur (in Malappuram district) reporting extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm and 21 cm respectively. Extended forecast until Thursday (June 21) said widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely along the West coast.

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