Heat wave building over Gujarat

The India Met Department has warned of heat wave conditions building over Gujarat in what is seen as a precursor to unfolding weather pattern in the State during May and beyond.

The thunderstorm regime – now active over parts of south India, east and north-east India – will steer clear of Gujarat and parts of adjoining north-west India during the rest of the week.

Cloudless conditions Met Department forecasts on Tuesday showed no major movement of western disturbances across north-west India which will bring about clear and cloud-free conditions.

This should allow the late spring sun to batter land surface and heat it up to some extent. But this trend is likely to broken up with the arrival of a western disturbance next week, say some models.

Meanwhile, the Met has joined global models in suggesting the possibility of a low-pressure area taking shape to south-east of Sri Lanka. A US-based experimental storm tracker sees the system building some strength in the south Bay of Bengal but failing to make much impression in terms of prospects for further intensification.

‘Low’ building? Loitering in the south to south-west Bay of Bengal , the ‘low’ is seen fanning in moisture-laden easterlies into extreme south Indian peninsula and triggering a fresh spell of thundershowers next week.

None of the models surveyed seemed to point to a stronger storm developing either in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea during the rest of May.

Pre-monsoon storms riding on these basins during May are something that the impending South-West monsoon can do away with, since they can upset the flow pattern early into the season.

The month of May has in the past witnessed intensified action with low-pressure areas, depressions and even cyclones riding the ocean to hit the east coast of India.

May cyclones This is because the monsoon trough (in which the monsoon breeds) over South Asia first develops in May over the Bay of Bengal.

Together with the seasonal warming of sea surface temperature that also peaks in May, formation of the Bay monsoon trough also provides favourable conditions for tropical cyclones.

Pre-monsoon cyclones mainly develop from low-pressure systems in the equatorial Indian Ocean (around Sri Lanka) that then migrate northward into the Bay.

Scientists are of the view that potential intensity of cyclones might increase with rising air temperature as evidenced in formation of three intense cyclones in 2004 (unnamed); 2006 (Mala) and 2008 (Nargis).

During the past 30 years, the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Bay have increased significantly.

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