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The BJP is all set to get a boost in numbers in the Rajya Sabha, where as many as 60 MPs, including nominated members, are retiring in the next five months.
When Parliament meets for the Monsoon Session in July, the ruling party will have firmed up its position in the Upper House, courtesy elections in BJP-ruled States.
The BJP, which is already the largest party in the House, may see its tally go up from the present 58 to 73. However, the ruling NDA alliance will still fall short of majority in the 245-member House. A strong presence in the Rajya Sabha is crucial for the Narendra Modi government as it prepares for Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
The Congress’ numbers are certain to fall — 14 of the principal opposition party’s 54 MPs are retiring. Given its poor showing in recent Assembly elections, the party can only send a maximum of 3 MPs to the House.
Elections to the Rajya Sabha are held every two years, when a third of its members retire. The MPs, elected from the State Assemblies, have a 6-year tenure.
Majority still distant
The elections are unlikely to help the NDA cross the half-way mark which would help the government push through legislations with ease. The Opposition, with its numbers, has been able to stonewall the Bill on triple talaq, and the legislation pertaining to the setting up a commission for OBCs.
The Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Bill, in which the Centre has invested much, is certain to face resistance in the House of Elders. And yet, the government has been successful in getting several Bills passed, especially those related to the GST, by dividing the Opposition.
Congress’ predicament
It is the Congress that will be most hit by the retirements. Seventeen of the party’s Rajya Sabha MPs will retire between April and July.
In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand — where the party has little or no presence — it is not in a position to send its candidate to the Upper House. The terms of movie star Chiranjeevi and Renuka Chowdhury, both Congress members from Andhra Pradesh, are coming to an end.
Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman PJ Kurien, an MP from Kerala, is retiring, while his predecessor K Rahman Khan’s term, from Karnataka, will come to an end. Party spokespersons such as Rajeev Shukla (Maharashtra), Abhishek Singhvi (Rajasthan) and senior leader Satyavrat Chaturvedi (Madhya Pradesh) will have to face elections to return.
BJP retirees to return
Seventeen of the BJP’s members will also retire during the April-July period. Prominent among them are Finance Minister Arun Jaitley (Gujarat), Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar (Madhya Pradesh), Social Justice Minister Thawar Chand Gehlot (Madhya Pradesh), Health Minister JP Nadda (Himachal Pradesh), Dharmendra Pradhan (Bihar), P Rupala (Gujarat) and senior leader Bhupender Yadav (Rajasthan). These leaders are likely to be re-elected without any hurdles, given the party’s upper hand in the respective State Assemblies.
The BJP may also get at least 15 more seats currently held by the Congress and other opposition parties from States such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Haryana.
In April, the ruling party can send at least seven members to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh, where there are nine vacancies.
Six leaders of the Samajwadi Party, including Naresh Agrawal and Jaya Bachchan will retire before the Monsoon Session of Parliament. The SP will be able to send just one MP from Uttar Pradesh. If the Congress, BSP and SP vote together, it can send one more MP from the State. One MP from BSP is also retiring, but the party is in no position to retain that seat.
Three MPs of Bihar’s ruling JD(U) are retiring, and so are the terms of two independents, including Rajeev Chandrashekhar. Two TDP MPs, one each from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, will retire.
Left will win 3
Two of the CPI(M) MPs will also retire. CITU General Secretary Tapan Kumar Sen’s term from West Bengal comes to an end in April. But given the party’s poor position in the State, he cannot be re-elected. From Kerala, however, the Left is likely to get three seats out of the four vacancies coming in July.
The resignation of JD(U) parliamentarian from Kerala, MP Veerendrakumar, has also given rise to a vacancy.
Sachin, Anu Agha to retire
The terms of nominated MPs, cricket icon Sachin Tendulkar, actor Rekha and industrialist Anu Agha, will also end before the Monsoon Session. Two MPs each from NCP and BJD will retire, while three Elders from the Trinamool Congress, one Shiv Sena MP and one member Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MP will also retire during the period. Trinamool will retain all the three seats.
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