Prime Minister Narendra Modi will struggle to win a simple majority in the upcoming general elections and the Opposition Congress party has a fair chance at forming the government with support from regional allies, according to Fitch Solutions Macro Research.

Neither of the country’s main national parties are likely to get a majority in the lower house of Parliament, said the affiliate of Fitch Ratings. That means that both will have to attempt to club a coalition with regional parties at a time when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has disagreements with many large potential kingmaker parties, the research added. “We at Fitch Solutions are bucking the overwhelming consensus at this juncture that the BJP will most likely form the next government after the upcoming elections,” said Fitch in a report on Thursday. The Indian National Congress party, headed by Rahul Gandhi, has a fair chance of marshalling a coalition government, it added.

The BJP’s recent populist spending efforts, including the farmers’ income support program, will have minimal effect on swinging voters to its side, the group claimed, adding that the deadly attack in Kashmir allows the ruling party to drum up nationalistic sentiments and to rally the electorate behind the BJP.

May miss the mark

The BJP lost three State elections to the Congress in December and various polls in India have shown declining support for Modi and the BJP. A recent India Today poll predicted that the ruling NDA coalition could fall short of the majority mark in India’s 543-seat Parliament and win 237 seats, down from the 336 seats the grouping won in the 2014 elections.

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