Covid spread intensifies in Kerala; TPR above 16%

Covid-19 transmission in Kerala intensified on Thursday with test positivity ratio (TPR) breaching the 16 per cent-mark to 16.15 per cent after toying with 15 per cent for the past few days. The day also reported a sudden jump in the death figures by 197, taking the cumulative toll to 19,246.

Among districts, Thrissur (2,873) swapped places with Malappuram (2,824) for the top slot in the daily new numbers, followed by Ernakulam (2,527) and Kozhikode (2,401). Four other districts had numbers above 1,000 on a day when a total of 1,30,768 samples were tested across the state.

Inpatient numbers stable

The number of hospital admissions continue to be low compared to the overall numbers at 27,380. A significant change is in the number panchayats/wards above the threshold Weekly Infection Population Ratio (WIPR), which invite a triple lockdown, from 634 last week to 414.

Dr TS Anish, Assistant Professor, Community Medicine at the Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, points out that a good number of the 20,000-plus daily new cases in Kerala are breakthrough infections in which the vaccinated gets infected.

According to State government statistics, there are three breakthrough infections for every 1,000 of the vaccinated, Anish told BusinessLine . But it also means that the severity of the disease has been brought down (thanks to the vaccine) by a third or even a fourth compared to April-May this year.

Some virologists see breakthrough infections as a blessing in disguise. This should be of interest to Kerala, which is now witnessing an active virus spread. So, how is it that breakthrough infections may not sound as bad as they possibly should, in the context of intense transmission ?

Breakthrough infections may rule out evolution of a mutant any time soon, according to virologists mentioned above. Breakthroughs provide a safety valve for the virus to precipitate new infections, which it is borne to do. A mutant mostly arises as a result of what Dr Anish described as application of some evolutionary pressure (which even a vaccine seeks to do, but only just).

“Chances of a mutant being released are limited when a virus is transmitting intensely. It is when we seek to suppress this transmission that strains of the virus are forced to select themselves and launch an all-out effort to prevail over the barrier, which they do with time,” said Anish.

Since breakthroughs allow the virus to infect, it does not find the need to mutate. What would have been a killer virus will now cause only a harmless flu. “As much is on show in Kerala in terms of fewer hospital admissions. History also tells us that all major epidemics have ended as a flu.”

Keep constant watch

If those strains were to prevail and multiply, the entire scenario on the pandemic front would change with the mutant dictating terms from the front. So, this evolutionary pressure aspect is crucial. Some virologists surmise that the Delta variant could well have been a product of vaccination.

“We have to keep a strict watch to see if such viral strains have been selected from out of the Delta variant. Consistent genetic analysis of a maximum number of samples will tell us what. So far, it is 100 per cent Delta variant on the rampage. No sign of a new variant just yet,” said Anish.

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