Fears of deficit monsoon in Gujarat as further delay in rain expected

Farmers in Gujarat are a worried lot as the South-West monsoon plays truant after making a brief appearance following the Vayu cyclone in June.

As per the State Emergency Operation Centre of Gujarat, as on July 16, the State has received total average rainfall of about 196 mm, which is nearly 86 per cent deficient from the long-period normal rainfall of 816 mm. In fact, the season's rainfall so far is almost half of 338 mm reported in the comparable period last year.

The worrying part for the farmers is that the Met department has predicted no major monsoon activity over the next five days with light to moderate rain/thundershowers very likely at a few places in all the districts of South Gujarat, at isolated places in North Gujarat region and Saurashtra- Kutch. And dry weather very likely in the remaining districts of Gujarat region, Saurashtra and in Diu.

An independent weather analyst in Ahmedabad, Ankit Patel said, “There is no likelihood of rains in the next few days, while only scattered rainfall is likely during July 19-23. We may expect some rains after July 25. But looking at the long-range forecast models, it appears that Gujarat may have to face a repeat of 2018 pattern of rainfall deficit.”

So far, Kutch and North Gujarat regions have seen most deficient rains at about 94 per cent and 81 per cent respectively. Saurashtra region too has received scanty rains with about 80 per cent deficit. Central Gujarat region, which includes Ahmedabad, has received better rainfall with deficit hovering around 77 per cent.

South Gujarat region has seen good rainfall over the past few days following heavy rainfall in Northern Maharashtra including Mumbai. The region has seen total average rainfall of about 438 mm, which is deficient by about 68 per cent.

July , which is normally considered to have more rainy days, has reported total 87 mm rains, while rainfall during June was reported at 109 mm.

This has affected the progress of overall sowing in the State with total area under kharif falling short by 42 per cent from the normal kharif sowing area till July 15.

Weather watchers and agriculture experts believed that the cyclonic storm Vayu that skirted Gujarat coast in June brought early showers with heavy to very heavy rains in some pockets. But it disturbed the monsoon progress through Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. As a result of which, the western State faced delay in full-fledged monsoon activity.