Fresh cyclone alert in Arabian Sea

India Met Department has notified a likely second cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea even as it hinted that the monsoon may enter South Andaman Sea in two days' time. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the extreme South-East Bay of Bengal is the first pit-stop for the monsoon into the Indian territorial waters.

RAMPAGING SEAS

The onset on Wednesday (May 23) is slightly delayed only because of the 'pull' on the monsoon system as a whole exerted by a rampaging Arabian Sea on the other side. A remnant of cyclone 'Sagar' has hardly died out over Somalia ad Ethiopia in the western basin of the Arabian when another low-pressure area has formed over the southern basin.

This is located to the West of Lakshadweep Islands and North-West of Maldives, and is expected to become the second cyclone of the season, to be named 'Mekunu.'

If 'Sagar' was a name contributed to the naming protocol by India, 'Mekunu' is a Maldivian name; and rightly so, since brew closest to this island nation in South Arabian Sea.

This projected cyclone is forecast to drive West-North-West and head towards the South Oman and North Yemen coasts over the next five days, the IMD said.

BAY-BOUND FLOWS

Satellite pictures this morning showed clouds building up over the West Arabian Sea, quite some distance away from both Lakshadweep and Maldive Islands, and nearest to the Socotra Island off the Gulf of Aden.

The incoming flows have found another corridor to the South-East to blast into around Sri Lanka and its South and also invade the larger Bay of Bengal.

These flows are expected to precipitate the monsoon over South Andaman Sea, but more than anything else, this is a statement on the overall strength of the monsoon current.

Normally, twin cyclones in the Arabian Sea are enough to send the monsoon into disarray, since they would have spun away most of the flows along with them to Yemen/Oman.

Apparently not this time, since the onset over the South Andaman is forecast not too delayed than its normal window, and, given good tidings for the East Coast of India as well.

'LOW' OFF TN COAST?

Aircraft flying long distance over the international flight path from North-West to South-East were found steering clear of a dangerous thunderstorm over the Gulf of Mannar this morning.

This was indicative of the strong flows spilling into the narrow waters separating South India and Sri Lanka, which could likely precipitate a 'low' upstream along Tamil Nadu coast.

A number of models, including that of IMD, indicated this, which is forecast to coincide with the peaking of the would-be cyclone 'Mekunu' in the West Arabian Sea.

Monsoon flows stay with the strongest of prevailing weather systems but the 'low' forming to other side of the peninsula alongside points to the overall health of the monsoon.

It is in instructive here to recall that the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology had said it expected a depression to form in the Bay, heralding the monsoon into the Bay of Bengal littoral country.

But no such outlook is available just yet, though some point to the possibility of the 'low' off Tamil Nadu crawling up its way along India's East Coast towards Bangladesh/Myanmar.

Satellite image taken on May 21, 2018, at 08.45 IST

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