It has been billed as a trial run for the bigger battle that will be fought in 2014. So, the opponents slugged it out, landing punches and counter-punches.

On one side fighting it almost single-handed was Narendra Modi, the 62-year-old Chief Minister of Gujarat, who, if exit polls are to be believed, will win for the third time in a row.

Ranged against him is the entire Congress (I), which hopes to wrest power after being in the wilderness in the State for close to two decades.

All the top Congress (I) leaders, including its president Sonia Gandhi, general secretary Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh campaigned in Gujarat.

While the top BJP leaders too, addressed election meetings in Gujarat, they have all been sideshows to the Modi act.

Modi began his campaign much before elections were officially notified, touring the State in a purpose-built bus. His plank has been that of development and Gujarati pride. The Congress (I) has attacked Modi hard and debunked his claims of development. With close to 70 per cent polling in the two rounds of elections, the results that will be declared on Thursday are most eagerly awaited not just in Gujarat, but across the country.

For, the outcome will have a major bearing on national politics and the 2014 general elections.

Modi himself nurses national ambitions and the BJP, too, which is grappling without a leader of stature, will be hoping that a victory in Gujarat will boost its morale and become more aggressive in its opposition to the UPA Government at the Centre. Some in the BJP will hope that a third consecutive victory will propel Modi on to the national stage.

A defeat for Modi, however unlikely it seems, will not just lift the Congress (I)’s spirits, but more or less ensure its victory in the Parliamentary elections about a year-and-a-half away.

What with the direct cash transfer scheme and a host of other populist measures that are bound to follow, the Congress (I) will fancy its chances of retaining power much more now than it did a few months ago.

In the 2007 Gujarat Assembly elections, the BJP won 117 seats in the 182-member Assembly, polling 49 per cent of the total votes polled.

The Congress (I), which contested 173 seats, won 59, polling 38 per cent of the votes.

This time around, the Gujarat Parivartan Party, formed by former BJP veteran and ex-Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, is expected to queer the pitch in the Saurashtra region. Will Patel make enough of a dent in the BJP’s base to help the Congress (I), is another question that will be answered once the results are out.

The Gujarat Government’s Web site describes Modi as a “successful organiser, progressive orator, master strategist and a thinker”. The BJP will be hoping all of these attributes of Modi will work.

Whatever the outcome of the Gujarat polls, it is sure to have an impact at the national level.

> Ramakrishnan.n@thehindu.co.in

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