High suspense as Aruvikkara goes to polls tomorrow

The spirited campaigning for the three-cornered fight for the Aruvikkara Assembly by-election ended this evening.

The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and the opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) have gone all out in what is seen as a prestigious fight and a sampler of what is to come early next year, when the entire State goes to the polls.

At Aruvikkara, the entry of veteran O Rajagopal of the BJP seems to have upset the calculations of both fronts. The party’s capability to deliver late but effective rallies in the last mile are bothering them to no end.

While the BJP candidate garnered 7,694 votes in the last Assembly elections, it managed to almost double it in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The expectation is that this could go up to 20,000 this time.

And this could prove crucial to the arithmetic. There are an estimated 1.80 lakh eligible votes in the constituency left vacant by the demise of Assembly Speaker G Karthikeyan. He had won by a margin of 10,674.

Observes expect at least 1.35 lakh voters to exercise their franchise this time. This means a candidate needs to poll at least 50,000 votes to make any serious bid. The crucial question is who will.

The UDF is fielding Karthikeyan’s son K Sabarinathan, who quit a promising career with the Tatas to fancy his electoral chances. It is not just sympathy votes that the front is aiming at, UDF campaign managers take pains to assert.

The LDF has chosen former minister and Speaker M Vijayakumar — son of the soil, just as Sabarinathan is.

But there ends the comparison. Vijayakumar has had a long and distinguished track record in public life, not to speak of his constant presence in the district.

Sabarinathan may be is a novice but his age, effervescence and ability to communicate, which have surprised pollsters, have combined to lend him the X-factor. This personal attribute could well count for much, and even exceed the ‘sympathy factor’ that the UDF is trying to cash out.

The BJP’s Rajagopal is not a local man, but he has represented the whole State as a Minister of State for Railways under the Vajpayee government. He has also delivered more to the railway infrastructure in Thiruvananthapuram than any of his counterparts to this day. He has also sought to counter his ‘outsider’ image by working up a busy schedule, ensuring his presence in the city.

The UDF campaign got off to a good start, but both the LDF and the BJP have managed to catch up. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, Pradesh Congress Committee president VM Sudheeran and senior Congress leader AK Antony have led the UDF campaign.

It has used the Vizhinjam port, Kochi Metro and Kannur airport projects to the hilt, citing them as its achievements even while facing flak on the solar scam and bar bribe case.

COMMENT NOW