ICMR distances from self-funded Covid-19 preprint study

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has disassociated itself from a study that it has funded, which said that India may not have adequate health infrastructure to deal with cases of Covid-19 after November even after all lockdown and public health measures are put in place.

ICMR in a tweet has clarified that this study has not been conducted by the scientific body. It has stated that the study is a non-peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of the apex health research body.

This when two of its co-authors are affiliated to ICMR as also a funding statement in the study states that it has been funded by research body. The pre-print article published in medRxiv - a portal for publishing those studies that have not yet officially been published in any scientific journal carried a model-based analysis for Covid-19 Pandemic in India - Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low and Middle Income Countries. Amongst the authors are Narendra Kumar Arora who is the chair of ICMR’s Covid-19 Operations Research Group and Arvind Pandey, a senior ICMR official.

Sandip Mandal of Translational Global Health Policy Research Cell of ICMR has also provided inputs for the study.

Other authors of the study include those from the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research in Chandigarh, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and INCLEN Trust International.

The study claims that in the event of an eight-week lockdown, the peak of epidemic will shift by 34 to 76 days. Even in the event of the lockdown being effective up to 60 per cent with intensified public health measures, the current dedicated resources in terms of isolation beds, ICU beds and ventilators are adequate to meet the necessity till first week of November and afterwards it is inadequate for 5.4 months in terms of isolation beds, 4.6 months for ICU beds and 3.9 months for ventilators.

The study has a disclaimer that the article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review. “It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used as a guide to clinical practice,” the study warns.

In an unmitigated circumstance, where there is absence of a lockdown, there could be potentially between 16 and 18 crore Covid-19 cases in India, which reduce to up to 4 crore cases staggered across September to next year’s February, if there is effective lockdown measures are in place and followed, the study has stated.

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