India Meteorological Depression (IMD) has issued an alert for a depression in the Bay of Bengal by Thursday with a preliminary low-pressure area expected to form over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea soon. Weather watchers wonder if the long distance for onward movement should allow the system to intensify even further.

The IMD said that the system may reach the Tamil Nadu coast as a depression by Thursday. The Canadian Meteorological Centre agrees with IMD’s prediction but the Japanese Meteorological Agency suspects that there is only a sustained movement of a ‘low’ without intensification. A determined ‘low’ is enough to add to the woes of Chennai and its neighbourhood which are already affected by the excess rains.

Heavy rain for Tamil Nadu

The Global Forecast System of the US Centre for National Environmental Prediction suggests a weakening of the depression just ahead of landfall while, in an outlier prediction, the US Navy Global Environmental Model sees a depression crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The IMD has forecast widespread light to moderate rainfall over Kerala, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu during next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu on Monday and Tuesday and heavy to very heavy rain at few places with isolated extremely heavy falls likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

South AP coast vulnerable

Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls at isolated places are also likely over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh during same period. Squally weather (wind speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) is likely over South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay and along and off the South Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu coasts and Gulf of Mannar during next four days. Wind speeds may accelerate to 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr over the South-East Bay on Wednesday and Thursday.

Meanwhile, on Monday, heavy rains had taken off from where they had left Chennai and parts of North Coast Tamil Nadu during the weekend and the city and suburbs experienced heavy rains from early morning thanks to a barrage of north-easterly winds pushed in by a cyclonic circulation each in the immediate neighbourhood and away to the South-East.

The IMD has already kept a watch for the upcoming ‘low’ in the South-East Bay to intensify, which, according to its short-to-medium projections, may go on to become a storm over the next few days.

It could scale up the rainfall activity further with heavy to very heavy rainfall over North Coastal Tamil Nadu (includingChennai) and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places; and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala, Mahe and Rayalaseema on Wednesday and Thursday.

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