Is Mamata set for a return in Bengal?

Who will win the 2016 Assembly election in Bengal?

Ask Banti Prasad, a taxi driver in the North Bengal town of Siliguri – where the Congress and the CPI(M)-led Left Front joined hands to win the municipal elections last year. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will retain power, he says.

But Prasad is no staunch supporter of the Trinamool Congress. In fact, he has many grievances against the ruling dispensation. He is only reflecting the common perception: unlike in 2011, there is no visible anti-establishment wave in 2016.

However, the Left and the Congress are looking forward to a path-breaking electoral pact this year and believe a repetition of the “Siliguri model” may turn the tide in favour of the Opposition.

State Congress spokesperson and AICC member Omprakash Mishra had written to Rahul Gandhi in December, claiming that the combine may get 161 of 294 seats, and be able to throw Banerjee out of power.

The expectation is built primarily on the waning of the “Modi wave” that pushed the BJP’s vote share up to a whopping 17 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014, up from six per cent in 2009 general elections and four per cent in 2011 Assembly polls.

The BJP’s surge came largely at the cost of the Left. The Opposition expects the BJP vote share to slide to six per cent this election. And the benefits should accrue to them. The second of Mishra’s arguments was the relative weakness of the TMC in seven North Bengal districts (Malda, South Dinajpur, North Dinajpur, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar and Alipurduar and Darjeeling), Murshidabad, and parts of Nadia and Purulia in the south. The TMC would barely win four seats out of the 43 in North Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad.

The third expectation is that the nearly 28 per cent Muslim vote in the State that almost entirely went to Mamata in 2011 and 2014, may split in 2016. However there is not much evidence to support this claim. On the contrary, Mamata is highly attentive in nursing this constituency and, has increased number of Muslim candidates by 50 per cent to 57.

Not even BJP leaders believe State in-charge Siddharth Nath Singh’s claims that the party will ride to power in the State. For a short period after the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP did have an impact on State politics but ended up losing momentum due to leadership failure.

Mishra restricts the BJP’s chances to four South Bengal seats – three in Burdwan district (two in Asansol and Kulti) and one in the border town of Basirhat South. BJP now has only one, secured in a by-election. Its partner in the NDA, the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) is a favourite in three hill constituencies.

While a slide in BJP’s fortune appears imminent, it is doubtful if the party will go back to the six per cent level. A senior TMC leader expects BJP to gross eight per cent. A Leftist political watcher puts it at 10-11 per cent. “There is a consolidation of Hindu votes like never before. Despite their organisational weaknesses, BJP vote is now a reality in Bengal politics,” he says.

But will the Opposition benefit from the BJP’s fall? There are sceptics even in the coalition camp in this regard.

Firstly, the Left has consistently been losing popularity with grassroots support in its erstwhile bastions of Birbhum, Burdwan and West and East Midnapore districts shifting to Trinamool.

Political analyst Ashis Chatterjee points out that in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation elections of 2015, the BJP’s vote share came down to half its previous number. But 85 per cent of the benefit was accrued by Trinamool.

Even in the 2014 polls, TMC was in a winning position in 214 (out of 294) Assembly segments.

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