Jayalalithaa beats poll trend, DMK

With results for the 15th Tamil Nadu Assembly elections coming in, it is clear that the AIADMK will retain power for a consecutive term – a feat no government has achieved since 1984 – and its General Secretary J Jayalalithaa will lead the party to a fourth win.

The elections of 2016 have thus broken the anti-incumbency trend of the last three decades when the people have alternately voted into power the AIADMK and the DMK. The common perception was that this trend would continue in the current elections too.

However, the 2016 elections also made it clear that Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu continue to be a battle between the two frontline Dravidian parties, as has been the case in the last 40 years.

The much-hyped Third Front, a six-party combine led by Vijayakant’s DMDK, which positioned itself as an alternative to the two Dravidian parties failed to bag even a single seat.

Significantly, this Front included the CPI and CPI(M), which had had a combined strength of 18 seats between them in 2011.

For the first time in four decades, the Tamil Nadu Assembly will not have Communist representation.

As the results continue to come in, it is clear that the AIADMK has a comfortable majority with 134 seats in the 234-seat Assembly. On May 16, voting was conducted for 232 seats. Elections in two constituencies – Aravakurichi and Thanjavur – were deferred to May 23 following allegations of malpractice by some contestants.

But the AIADMK has lost a bit of ground as its seat tally is down from the 149 it had in the 14{+t}{+h} Assembly.

The DMK, led by nonagenarian M Karunanidhi, who had hoped to be chief minister for a sixth time, has to remain content in the opposition. The DMK is set to win about 89 seats. This is a huge gain over the 23 seats it bagged in the previous Assembly.

Karuna’s record However, Karunanidhi has set an individual record: this win from his native Thiruvarur constituency gives his thirteenth straight win in elections to the State Assembly.

It must fetch the DMK patriarch some solace that his party has regained its position as the main Opposition in the Assembly, a distinction it lost in 2011 to Vijayakant’s DMDK, in alliance with the AIADMK which formed the government, emerged the main opposition, relegating the DMK to third position.

DMDK draws a blank The DMDK failed to score this time, down from the 29 it had bagged in alliance with the AIADMK in 2011.

The Congress, which allied with the DMK, has bagged eight seats, up three seats from 2011.

The Muslim League has bagged one seat. The PMK, which contested in all constituencies, positioned itself as an alternative to Dravidian parties, and fielded a chief minister-hopeful, Anbumani Ramadoss, drew a blank.

Third Front constituent People’s Welfare Front, a four-party alliance of Vaiko’s MDMK, the CPI and the CPI(M) and the VCK all failed to make a mark in this election.The BJP, which is power at the Centre, too failed to score.

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