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The satta bazaar is betting on a hung Assembly in the upcoming Karnataka State elections. The BJP, which won 40 seats in the State in 2013, is expected to more than double its tally this time but may still fall short of a majority to form government, two bookies running the gambling book told BusinessLine .
The Karnataka Assembly has 224 seats and 113 are required for a majority government.
“We in the betting market trust Amit Shah’s maneuvering skills and believe BJP may form government in Karnataka, but with support from the Deve Gowda-led JD(S) as the poll verdict will throw up a hung Assembly,” said a bookie.
In December 2017, amid wide anticipation of BJP sweeping Gujarat polls with the highest number of seats in 20 years, bookies in the illegal betting market rightly predicted a fall in saffron party’s seat tally from last time. BJP won only seven seats more than what was required to form the government, and the Congress ended up with significantly higher number of seats. This time, the bookies say the BJP may not cross 95 seats in Karnataka. The odds on the BJP winning 95 seats are pegged at 1.65:1. This means the bookies will pay ₹1.65 over and above for every ₹1 bet on the BJP winning 95 seats. The odds on the Congress winning 95 seats are 2:1. But there is confidence that the BJP may not win less than 80 seats in the State this time, and the odds for the same are pegged at 0.32:1.
The JD (S), is expected to win at least 20 seats, and go with the BJP in forming the government, bookies said. Odds on 20 seats for JD(S) are 0.47:1.
“Karnataka elections are more easy to predict than Gujarat as the fight is not on key issues faced by the State but more between outside personalities, ie PM Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi,” said a bookie from Bengaluru. The Congress won 122 seats in 2013 and is expected to reduce its tally by over 40 seats on the back of anti-incumbency faced by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. Lower the odds, higher are the chances of that party winning more number of seats. The betting turnover is expected to cross ₹3,000 crore, bookies said.
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