Numbers do matter, especially when the election win is based on the caste composition. At the Anand Lok Sabha constituency in Gujarat, caste-based politics has taken a centre stage with both the major parties the Congress and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) setting their focus on KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) votes.

Not openly acknowledging their special attention to KHAM group, the parties do recognise the electoral importance of this section. The concept of KHAM was evolved by Congress leader and former Gujarat chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki in 1980s to shift the power base from upper caste including Patels and Brahmins to minorities and the other backward casts (OBCs).

Out of the 14.9 lakh voters, the KHAM group accounts for about 70 per cent, while Brahmins and Patel combined make it about 18.5 per cent. According to political observers, it is probably the reason behind Congress’ successive win on this seat. Since the independence, Congress has lost only thrice on this seat. Interestingly, it was under Madhavsinh’s rule in 1985, when as a result of the KHAM effect, the Congress got the landslide victory in state assembly with 149 seats out of total 182.

The sitting Congress MP and union minister Bharat Solanki, son of Madhavsinh has retained Anand seat since 2004 and eyes a third term this time. While Solanki – the kshatriya leader is confident of winning with heavy margins, his counterpart in the BJP, Dilip Patel is eyeing his Lok Sabha debut with the help of KHAM votes.

“We are getting support from all sections of society. The KHAM factor was visible only till last assembly elections. This time people from all groups are collectively supporting chief minister Mr Modi for Prime Minister’s post,” claimed Dipak Sathi, BJP’s Anand district president. BJP had fielded Sathi against Solanki in 2009 but lost with a margin of over 67,000 votes.

“However, we will be able to garner significant vote share from Thakor and Muslim communities this time,” said Sathi, who had won in 1999.

Solanki rubbished any impact of Modi wave in Gujarat saying that the Chief Minister’s plan of a clean sweep in Gujarat will not work. “Time and again, his overconfidence has fallen flat. This time we are eyeing majority seats in Gujarat and around 150 seats nationally,” Solanki said.

“Only those who have Capitalist mind-set will vote for Modi, because they have vested interests with the BJP Government. Mr Modi will be a fading phenomenon in next state polls,” he said.

In the past 10 Lok Sabha polls barely twice a Patel candidate has won on this seat, while it was Kshatriya candidates on Congress ticket who have won most of the time. This clearly indicates the strong influence of KHAM group.

However, Solanki feels that more than KHAM factor, it is the pro-poor policies of Congress party that will draw the votes. He believes if voting percentage increases, that would favour Congress with increase in margins. In 2009, Congress’ vote share was 51.5 per cent, while that of BJP was much lesser, 41.6 per cent.

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