Yesterday’s low-pressure area over South-East Arabian Sea has become 'well-marked' and lies over adjoining South-West Arabian Sea, some 500 km away from Lakshadweep.

It marked the first stage of intensification into what ultimately would become the second cyclone in the Arabian Sea, even as predecessor ‘Sagar’ fades out over Somalia and Ethiopia.

MODEL FORECASTS

The brewing cyclone, to be named in Maldivian 'Mekunu,' is forecast to travel North from the South-West Arabian Sea and become a depression by tomorrow.

India Met Department (IMD) expects it to turn into a full-flown cyclone two days hence and head towards South Oman-North Yemen coast.

Among the model forecasts surveyed, the UK Met model alone showed the cyclone to become a class-topping category-5 super cyclone, eyeing the coast around Ras Madrakah.

The US Navy Global Environment Model(NAVGEM) sees a less intense storm while the National Centres for Environmental Prediction says it may weaken just ahead of landfall.

Most others models favoured a scenario where a conventional cyclone, at worst a category-1 cyclone, hitting the central region of the Oman coast, without giving exact timelines.

EYE OVER BAY, TOO

Meanwhile, global models are concurrently glancing an eye over a couple of cyclonic circulations prowling the Bay of Bengal waters off Sri Lanka and over land in Tamil Nadu.

The Canadian Meteorological Centre bets on a likely depression travelling from South-West Bay of Bengal towards Bangladesh/Myanmar during May 21 and 27.

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is already on record saying it expects a likely depression from the Bay to transport the monsoon in by May 23.

The GFS is of the view that the circulation off Sri Lanka may curl into Tamil Nadu while the US NAVGEM expects it to intensify and head towards the Andhra Pradesh coast in India.

This would mean that the Bay would be able to hold one end of the monsoon up, even as the brewing cyclone in the Arabian Sea drains out a bulk of the moisture over Yemen-Oman.

The IMD has reiterated its outlook for the onset of the monsoon over the South Andaman Sea in two days' time.

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