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An expected low-pressure area may materialise over the west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal off the Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts ‘any time’ and revive the monsoon at a time when rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has worsened to eight per cent (as of yesterday, Sunday).
The monsoon had weakened after the crucial land-based monsoon trough across the plains of north-west and adjoining central India had migrated to the Himalayan foothills during the last week. The eastern end has reverted back to normal position in anticipation of the low-pressure area.
Cyclonic circulation up
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said this (Monday) morning that the western end of the monsoon trough may take another three to four days to get back to its normal position and would depend on the dynamics of the low-pressure area and its movement inland.
Also read: Low pressure area to form in Bay of Bengal next week, to revive monsoon
The IMD has already spotted a preparatory cyclonic circulation over west-central and the adjoining north-west bay waters off the South Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast. This circulation is expected to descend to the lower levels of the atmosphere to set up the all-important ‘low.’
Warning to fishermen
Strong winds with speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail over south-west and west-central Arabian Sea. Squally weather (wind speeds 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 kmph) is likely off the coast of Andhra Pradesh. Fishermen are advised not to venture out to these areas today (Monday).
A north-south trough runs from Jharkhand to west-central Bay of Bengal off the South Odisha coast across Odisha. This is expected to collapse with the formation of the low-pressure area. The larger monsoon trough is nestled along the foothills while the eastern end passes through Varanasi, Jamshedpur and Digha before dipping southeastwards into the central Bay of Bengal.
Widespread rain forecast
The IMD has predicted that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls may persist over north-east India and the plains of West Bengal and Sikkim during next 4-5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Assam and Meghalaya today (Monday).
Also read: IMD predicts fresh rain spell over Peninsular India from next week
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over the plains of West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during the next five days as the low-pressure area starts to influence the proceedings.
Welcome rains for dry Odisha
Isolated heavy falls is forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Jharkhand today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday); over east Madhya Pradesh from Tuesday to Thursday; over Chhattisgarh until Thursday; and over Vidarbha on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast over Odisha today and tomorrow. Odisha now has a rainfall deficit of 30 per cent.
In its outlook for today (Monday), the IMD warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya and Odisha; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, plains of West Bengal and Sikkim; Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Eastern seaboard to stay wet
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning may break out over East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, plains of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Also read: Lean patch over South, West reverse rain gains elsewhere
An extended outlook for August 21-23 said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over parts of central and adjoining north and east India and north-east India. Fairly widespread rainfall may lash the rest of the country except West Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch and Ladakh region where isolated rainfall is likely, the IMD said.
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