'Low' watch off, but forecast of thunderstorms stays for South India

True to the fickle nature of the monsoon and associated forecast uncertainties, the outlook for a low-pressure area developing in the Bay of Bengal has been withdrawn.

Global models had raised doubts about the prospects of the 'low' yesterday morning itself, and India Met Department (IMD) concurred by withdrawing the outlook by the same evening.

PARENT CIRCULATION STAYS

But that doesn't take away the threat of thunderstorms, high winds and spell of heavy rain for much of East, Central and Peninsular India over the next few days.

This is because the parent circulation, which was widely thought would spawn the 'low,' is very much in the reckoning and preparing to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The IMD now suspects that it would set off on its elaborate journey westward over the peninsula, cutting open a trough diagonally across Peninsular India in a south-west to north-east axis.

This elaborate set-up could ultimately lead to its intensification as a low-pressure area or a depression over land over West Maharashtra and adjoining Mumbai by midweek next week.

This could set off a trail of heavy rain, high winds and thunderstorms accompanied by lightning across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Madhya Maharashtra.

PACIFIC TYPHOON WATCH

Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal should watch with caution the possibility of a westward moving typhoon likely rearing its head over the South China Sea next week.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has already spotted an area of convection to the East of the Philippines and moving to the west, crossing the Philippines and emerging into the South China Sea.

This is expected to develop traction over the warm waters there and help it acquire strength in phases to that of a typhoon (cyclone) which would likely hit the Vietnam coast and head further south-west.

This would take a potent remnant of the storm hurtling its way across and enter Thailand and Myanmar where it is projected as striking a pose by October 16.

If the typhoon remnant were to stick to this track further ahead, it would enter South-East Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea in the Indian territorial waters.

After suitably churning up the Bay of Bengal in this manner, the typhoon remnant could likely herald the onset of North-East monsoon over the Southern Peninsula.

COMMENT NOW