Madhesi issue: Nepal’s political rife delays solution

Pawan Thapa (name changed), a police constable in Kathmandu, has strong reservations against the Madhesi demand for scrapping the current demarcation of provinces and dividing majority of Nepal’s plains (Terai) between them and the Tharus.

The Government had announced the demarcation while promulgating the new Constitution. The Madhesis, demanding a “Madhesh Pradesh” since 2007, resorted to economic blockade at the main trade route through Birgunj. 

A native of the hilly part of the country, Thapa is unequivocal that Madhesis are the only community to have been offered a separate “Madhesh Pradesh”, comprising eight districts in the plains, and should be happy. Yielding to the demand will give rise to similar calls from other ethnic groups, he feels.

He is also aggrieved at the role of India which, he is sure, didn’t redirect cargo through other gates. But considering the inhospitable terrain of the Nepal-China border on the north, he sees little sense in the KP Oli government’s rhetoric to meet the demand through China. 

“One may not be fortunate enough to get a good neighbour. The Government could do better and ensure free movement of goods (from India) than the nonsense of ‘importing from China’,” he says.

Cab drivers, shopkeepers, waiters – the common people of Kathmandu – are all irritated at the prolonged misery.

And, the message has reached the corridors of power. The statements of the Prime Minister throughout the week have been distinctly softer.

After ridiculing the Madhesis, nearly denying the existence of protests by squarely blaming India, the Oli government is now coming to terms with the reality.

“The blockade has serious implications for people’s lives. The Government is very serious,” said Pradeep Gyawali, Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and a key advisor to the Prime Minister.

After nearly a three-month- long agitation and nearly 45 deaths in police firing, the Madhesi forum, including regional parties and factions of Maoists as well as other radical forces, have given the call for intensifying protests from next week.

Madhesi parties have no choice either. Over 50 lives were lost in the agitation between 2007 and 2008, two sets of agreements for Madhesh Pradesh were signed, Madhesi parties got support of the electorate in terms of vote share, almost all leaders were ministers, and yet demands were never met.

“ Mein Madhes ke liye deewana hun  (I am sold out to the dream of Madhesh),” says 15-year-old Ajay Giri. An illiterate orphan, Giri had quit his job at a roadside eatery to participate in the protests that he describes as “movement for independence from the oppression of the Paharis” (hill people).

“Prolonging the impasse may escalate tensions between two large social groups in the hills and in the plains,” says Gyawali.

The Government has already formed a high-level committee, headed by coalition partner Prachanda of Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

The committee will be further broad-based by inclusion of the top leadership of the principal Opposition, the Nepali Congress.

Gyawali is hopeful that the issue will be resolved as “both the Government and agitating groups are realising” that allowing the deadlock to continue may lead to more complications. 

But political circles do not see an early solution.

First, there are differences within the CPN (UML). While Oli has softened his stance, his party colleague and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal has taken a different line.

Second, Prachanda’s UCPN (Maoist) that had given the call for “One Madhesh, One Pradesh” during the rebellion against monarchy, is sympathetic to the Madhesis.

The Nepali Congress toes a middle line as it hadn’t favoured Prachanda’s call in the past. The Congress is cagey that supporting the demand might impact its electoral fortunes, says a party MP. All the three find fault with those agreements in 2007 and 2008, and expect Madhesis to be reasonable.

“The interim Government signed nearly a dozen agreements with Madhesis and other communities, which were contradictory in nature,” says Shakti Basnet, Home Minister, from the UCPN (Maoist). His sentiment is echoed by Gyawali.

Will the emerging situation, therefore, save the day for India? Maybe not.

Over the last week, India has stepped up fuel supplies through other border gates, especially through Biratnagar, where there is not much trouble. Supplies remain way below normal. The question is why was this not done earlier.

The young democracy is hurt but no more in the mood to upset the apple cart. “India was, is, and will be our biggest trade partner. We are only opening a second option (through China) for contingency,” Gyawali says.

The question is – will Madhesi groups respond to this mood swing in Kathmandu? India, they feel, is morally bound to support their cause.

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