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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that it expects below normal seasonal maximum (day) temperatures over most of the meteorological subdivisions of the South Peninsula and adjoining Central India during March to May, which represents the pre-monsoon season for the country.
It, however, agreed with most global forecasts to signal above normal day temperatures most of the subdivisions of North, North-West and North-East India, a few subdivisions from the eastern and western parts of Central India, and a few coastal subdivisions of North Peninsular India.
Coolest over Kerala, South Karnataka
The seasonal outlook was prepared using the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) simulations based on the 2021 February conditions. MMCFS has been developed under the Monsoon Mission project. The temperature outlook has been prepared using 31 ensemble member forecasts.
Kerala and South Interior Karnataka would experience the coolest summer this season, followed in that order by Tamil Nadu, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Madhya Maharashtra. The next coolest on the list are Telangana, Marathawada, Vidarbha, West Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
Konkan & Goa among hottest
In contrast, Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) would be among those to experience the hottest pre-monsoon weather this season. Joining it would be Chhattisgarh and Odisha Met subdivisions in the East. In fact, these three Met subdivisions together are expected to the hottest for the country as a whole.
Slightly less hot would likely be Gujarat; Saurashtra & Kutch; Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya; Jharkhand; West Uttar Pradesh; Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh; Bihar; East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan; Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura; Punjab; Himachal Pradesh; and Uttarakhand.
Warmer nights for some
Above normal night temperatures are likely over most subdivisions of North India along the foothills of Himalayas, North-East India, western parts of Central India and southern parts of Peninsular India. Below normal night temperatures are likely over most subdivisions of the eastern part of Central India and few in the extreme northern parts of the country.
Moderate La Nina conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are below normal over the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, the IMD outlook said. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that La Niña conditions may sustain during March to May, which is the consensus outlook of global models as well.
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