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Monsoon likely to cover entire land save West Rajasthan by month-end: IMD

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 18, 2021

Winds may organise better from June 26 to 30

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the currently disrupted monsoon flows over North-West India to organise and strengthen gradually from June 26 to 30 and advance to most parts of the region except the farthest and the country’s extreme north-western region of West Rajasthan.

A prevailing western disturbance may bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Uttarakhand during the next two days and isolated to scattered rainfall of light to moderate intensity likely over the remaining parts of North-West India and Gujarat until Sunday before fading out.

www.meteologix.com/in

Feeble low-pressure formation

In an extended outlook for the next two weeks, the IMD said that a cyclonic circulation over the plains of West Bengal may move to the North-West during next 2-3 days. A feeble low-pressure area also is likely to form over the North Bay of Bengal on Saturday (tomorrow) and move to North Jharkhand-Bihar area.

Also read: Monsoon may splutter to life in phases: IMD

This will sustain the fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over most parts of East and adjoining East-Central India during the current week ending June 23. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls may lash Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, North Odisha and North Chhattisgarh.

It is in the second week (June 23-30) that the monsoon flows would organise better and straighten out as a low-pressure area forms over the North Bay and moves inland. Normal to above normal rain is likely with isolated heavy falls over parts of East, Central and adjoining eastern parts of India.

Cumulatively during this week, rainfall may be normal over some pockets of North-West India except parts of the hills of the Western Himalayas. Strengthening of westerly winds and offshore trough along the West Coast may bring widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely along the West coast.

Hence, rainfall activity is likely to be normal along West Coast. It is likely to be near normal over the rest of the country outside the North-Eastern States and extreme southern parts of the South Peninsula where it is likely to be below normal, the IMD said.

Short-term outlook

A cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh will bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the region during next 2-3 days before relenting. Meanwhile, over the South Peninsula, an offshore trough runs extended from South Gujarat coast to North Kerala coast.

It will continue to trigger to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during next 2-3 days and over Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe for two days. Isolated extremely heavy falls are forecast over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra until Saturday.

The rainfall intensity may reduce over the West Coast and interior Maharashtra and Karnataka as well as the adjoining interior parts of Peninsular India from Saturday. The ongoing week ending June 23 will witness normal rainfall over the West Coast and normal to below normal rainfall over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Marathwada.

Heavy rains for North-East

Likely strengthening of southerly/southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal to North-East India towards end of the current week ending June 23 will spark widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy and isolated extremely heavy rainfalls very likely over the North-Eastern States.

Moderate to severe thunderstorms and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand could be expected during the week.

Published on June 18, 2021

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