The outlook for the short-to-medium term put out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that the North-East monsoon may head for a lean patch once the ongoing rain session overseen by a lone circulation and associated trough dissipates over the next two days.

The outlook for today (Saturday) indicated a possibility of heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry while thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may line up over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

An almost similar outlook is valid for Sunday with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely lashing isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Thunderstorm and lightning are forecast at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

 

Circulation and trough persist

Satellite maps on Saturday morning show north-easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal heading into a persisting cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area as well as a trough originating from the neighbouring Lakshadweep-Maldives and running North-North-East up to the Karnataka coast.

This combo would continue to bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala during the next two days and isolated to scattered rainfall over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andhra Pradesh.

The IMD has also forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu on Sunday and isolated heavy rainfall today (Saturday). The rainfall activity very likely to increase over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from Sunday with possibility of isolated heavy falls on Monday.

Fresh clouds over Bay

Satellite pictures showed clouds massing up over extreme South-East and adjoining South Bay of Bengal (off the Indonesian archipelago) and likely headed in a West-North-West direction towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their immediate neighbourhood.

Also to be watched out to further East-North-East over the South China Sea is the approach of tropical storm Atsani (successor to tropical storm Goni) towards Indochina, its likely landfall over Vietnam, and further tracking of the remnant towards the Bay of Bengal next week.

WeatherNov7am2PNG

The North-East monsoon may weaken over the South Peninsula once the ongoing rain session tapers off over the next two days. Fresh clouds building over the South-East Bay of Bengal have to organise and track towards the coast to revive the rain late next week.

 

Tropical storm Atsani

Indications are that the remnant of Atsani may find traction in the Bay and generate a circulation there and a potent blob of rainfall before arching their way across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and East-Central Bay towards the Central and South Tamil Nadu coast after November 15. This would likely break the lean rain patch and accompanied dry spell over Tamil Nadu.

In the intervening period (November 12-14), the IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall activity likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Dry weather is forecast over the remaining parts of the country.

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