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Rain deficit for the country as a whole has been reduced to just one per cent on the eve of the normal date (September 30) of commencement of monsoon withdrawal from land even as rain-generating weather systems were active to its West and East linked by a helpful trough.
Deficits are confined to Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura (-32 per cent); Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh (-29 per cent); Arunachal Pradesh (-24 per cent); Assam, Meghalaya and Lakshadweep (-22 per cent each); and West Uttar Pradesh (-21 per cent).
More rain forecast
There are a few ‘normal’ meteorological subdivisions where the shortfall is below the threshold of 20 per cent.
These are East Gujarat, Kerala and Mahe (-16 per cent each) and a few others with a shortfall of 10 per cent each (Himachal Pradesh, Odisha and Coastal Karnataka), according to updated statistics on Wednesday by India Meteorological Department.
A well-marked ‘low’ from cyclone ‘Gulab’ that originated from the Bay of Bengal and travelled across Central India to Gujarat and adjoining Gulf of Khambhat on Wednesday is expected to intensify back as a depression and as a fresh cyclone over North-East Arabian Sea.
As the system is moving away from the Indian coast, no further impact is expected except extremely heavy rain events over Gujarat until Thursday evening, the IMD said.
But fishermen and mariners have been advised to avoid these sea areas.
A well-marked ‘low’
The well-marked ‘low’ is expected to emerge into the North-East Arabian Sea and intensify into a depression by Thursday and further into a cyclone bearing a different name by Saturday as it heads away from the Gujarat coast and aims to hit the Pakistan-Makran coasts.
Towards the East, another well-marked ‘low’ was located to the western parts of the plains of West Bengal and Jharkhand.
An East-West trough ran across Central India connecting both the well-marked ‘lows’ on either side of the peninsula and across Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
Light to moderate rainfall may lash at most places over Saurashtra and Kutch on Thursday accompanied with heavy to very heavy falls while heavy falls are likely over East Gujarat and north Konkan.
Heavy rain forecast
Heavy rainfall is likely over the plains of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand.
Heavy rain is also indicated for Bihar from Thursday to Sunday and very heavy falls on Friday and Saturday.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into North and adjoining Central Arabian Sea and along and off the Gujarat and North Maharashtra coasts from Thursday to Saturday.
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