The Narendra Modi-led NDA government’s intent to see through the Bill for Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the Monsoon session of Parliament will largely depend on the support it gets from Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.

Subsequent to the results of the States’ Assembly elections, dependence on the main Opposition, the Congress, will come down to some extent.

The NDA government currently has the support of 72 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the 245-member Upper House. The government requires the support of at least 123 members to see through the Constitution 122{+n}{+d} Amendment Bill, 2014.

Over June and July, as many as 53 Rajya Sabha MPs will retire or go for either fresh nominations or re-elections.

However, BJP members are confident about seeing through the Bill, though they agree that as a party they will only have ‘stronger voice’ but not majority in the Upper House this year.

Of the four States and one Union Territory that went to polls, only Tamil Nadu has six MPs retiring in June. Though the BJP is hopeful that Jayalalitha’s AIADMK will support the government on GST, it is still not clear what stance the State will take.

An indication to this effect had also come from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who had said earlier this week that “barring the AIADMK, which has mixed voices, other regional parties have supported the indirect tax reform proposal.”

Strong opposition

Tamil Nadu has been opposing GST on different grounds including that it will have an impact on the fiscal autonomy of the States and huge revenue loss to the State exchequer.

“Issues can be resolved as the AIADMK is also for development,” a BJP spokesperson said.

The other two States that went to polls — Kerala and West Bengal — will also get new members to the Rajya Sabha.

While Kerala will elect three new members to the Rajya Sabha in 2018, West Bengal will have as many as 11 posts vacant in 2017 and 2018. Assam, where the NDA has won, will have two members retiring in 2019.

The Centre recently announced former West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra as the Chairman of the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers on GST. Mitra has again won the elections, but it remains to be seen if he will continue with the Finance portfolio.

The Centre is hopeful that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will extend support to GST.

Added support

Adding to its hopes is the fact that a clutch of NDA-ruled States, including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Punjab, will have 16 Rajya Sabha MPs retiring over the next two months. These States could bolster support for the indirect tax reform in the Rajya Sabha Uttar Pradesh, which has also largely supported the GST, will have 11 vacancies coming up in July.

International rating agencies and foreign investors have been waiting for successive governments to introduce the long pending GST that was originally slated to be rolled out in 2010.

International rating agency Standard and Poor’s has said GST should be the next big item on the government’s to-do list.

(With inputs from Richa Mishra)

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