Skymet Weather declares ‘low’ over South Andaman Sea, hints rapid strengthening as depression

Vinson Kurian | | Updated on: Nov 30, 2021
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Too early to predict landfall details, says the private weather forecaster

Rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema has decreased significantly overnight on Tuesday according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD).

On the other hand, private forecaster Skymet Weather has invited weather watchers’ attention to a flurry of activity over the South Andaman Sea where it has already declared the formation of a fresh low-pressure area.

Skymet Weather chose to pull the plug ahead of IMD and called the low this afternoon and put it under watch for rapid intensification as a depression by tomorrow (Wednesday) itself. Earlier, a remnant of a cyclonic circulation from the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Myanmar had entered the South Andaman Sea area and reorganised into a low-pressure system.

Cyclone not ruled out

The private forecaster predicted that favourable environmental conditions may help the weather system strengthen in a rapid manner, even to a cyclone over the next two days over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal.

The storm is likely to move to the North-West and reach within the proximity of the country’s east coast by Friday closer to Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts over the West-Central Bay.

Skymet Weather said that, as of now, there is a little uncertainty about the place and time of landfall. The coastline of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal could be at risk of being breached by the storm. The precise time and place of landfall can be predicted after two days.

Too early to predict landfall area

Such a prediction can be made only after the weather system reaches the stage of a deep depression with a clearly defined centre. Though the climatology suggests it could be heading for the North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast, it can be verified after two days only.

Peripheral weather activity associated with the storm will manifest along the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha from Friday. North Odisha and the plains of West Bengal appear to be at high risk of stormy weather.

‘Low’ likely in Arabian Sea

Meanwhile, IMD pointed to the Arabian Sea where a cyclonic circulation lies over the Maldives-Lakshadweep areas with a trough extending to the East-Central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast. This will progressively give rise to a low-pressure area over the East-Central Arabian Sea off the Maharashtra coast as early as tomorrow (Wednesday).

As already forecast, an incoming ‘active’ (well-endowed in terms of depth and moisture carry) western disturbance is likely to affect North-West and adjoining Central India from tonight (Tuesday) and set up a productive interaction with the easterly blowing in from the Bay of Bengal.

Inbound western disturbance

This will trigger fairly widespread to widespread rain/thunderstorm with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat on Wednesday and isolated heavy over East Gujarat on Thursday.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely also over North Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may hit many places over this above region and spin-off isolated hailstorm.

Isolated to scattered rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm/lightning is likely over West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday with maximum activity on Thursday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over South-East Rajasthan.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall accompanied with isolated thunderstorm/lightning is likely over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh with maximum activity on Thursday. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Uttarakhand.

Published on November 30, 2021

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