US agency finds 80-90% chance for El Nino into March-May 2019

A leading US research agency has assessed that there is 80-90 per cent probability for El Nino conditions to develop in the East Equatorial Pacific through March-May next year (2019).

El Nino conditions, which represent anomalous warming in the Equatorial Pacific, has been associated with drought/poor monsoon in India, though without any proven direct cause-effect relationship.

'NEUTRAL' FOR NOW

The latest assessment on the lookout for the Pacific conditions came from the US-based International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

The IRI said that as of mid-July, about 55-60 per cent of the dynamical or statistical models predict 'neutral' (neither El Nino or alter ego La Nina) conditions for the initial July-September this year.

About 40-45 per cent of these models, however, showed El Nino conditions for the period under reference. For the rest of the year, a linear progression to El Nino conditions is more likely.

For this period, probabilities for ‘neutral’ drop to near 30 per cent for August-October and to 20 per cent or less from September-November through March-May 2019, the IRI said.

Meanwhile, the probability for El Nino rises to about 70 per cent for August-October and to mainly between 80 per cent and 90 per cent from September-November through March-May 2019.

The La Nina probabilities (wherein the Equatorial East Pacific cools to establish an observed pattern of favourable vibes for a concurrent Indian monsoon) are near zero throughout the forecast period.

PREDICTIVE SKILLS

At lead times of three or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean’s observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not.

For October-December this year, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, about 20 per cent predicts 'neutral' conditions and about 80 per cent predict El Nino conditions, the IRI said.

Meanwhile, the monsoon of 2018 seemed to take advantage of the prevailing 'neutral' conditions in the Pacific to power itself to 'active' or 'vigorous' conditions over Central and North-West India.

Two low-pressure areas simultaneously at work over land and ocean represented the best phase of the monsoon yet after it reversed a lean phase during June 12 to 27.

Rain-deficit areas have been confined to two Met subdivisions in the South while, in the North, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal and the North-Eastern States are nursing varying deficits.

The latest ‘low’ to emerge in the Bay of Bengal with limbs extending to Bengal and Odisha coasts is expected bring some rainfall into the deficit areas in the East and North-East.

ACTIVE MONSOON

India Met Department said that two ‘low’s would bring widespread to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over East, Central and North-West over the next five days.

Sea conditions are expected to remain 'very rough' over major parts of the Arabian Sea and the Andaman Sea over the next two days and fishermen are advised not venture out into these seas.

As for today, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy fall over Odisha, East Rajasthan, and North coastal Andhra Pradesh.

It will be heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Konkan, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Telangana.

Heavy rain is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, West Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, East Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Maharashtra.

Squally wind speed reaching 35- to45 km/hr and gusting to 55 km/hr has been forecast over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and along ad off the West Bengal and Odisha coasts.

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