Amid anxiety, hope and concern, the 20 million people who cast their vote in Kerala’s May 16 poll for 140 constituencies await the outcome.

By mid-day on Thursday, it will be clear who will govern the State for the next five years. Will it be the LDF that will win, as most exit polls have predicted? Or will it be the UDF, which had been confident of a ‘continuity of governance’?

Largest-ever turnout

The election saw the largest-ever turnout of voters in Kerala. Of the State’s 2.5 crore electors, 2.01 crore cast their votes. This means 77.35 per cent of them voted, which is the second-highest polling percentage in Kerala’s six decades of electoral history. The highest was in the 1987 elections, which saw a record 80.54 per cent turnout.

Will it hold water?

An electoral theorem has been in play in Kerala all these years — the higher the polling percentage, the lower the chances of an LDF win.

The theorem is reasoned thus: those owing allegiance to the CPI(M)-led LDF are relatively committed voters compared to those in the UDF camp. Hence, rain or shine, they show up for voting, and early in the day, at that.

But the UDF’s followers, being less politically committed, sometimes would not step out of their homes in heavy rain or some other eventualities. And, they would usually cast their votes close to midday and later in the afternoon.

And yet, there have been elections that disproved the theorem. Thursday will show if it holds water this time.

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