Normal to above normal rainfall over South Peninsula, North-East India

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on October 04, 2019

Weather forecast   -  Website/IMD

East and North-East India witnessed 97 per cent above normal rainfall

The South-West monsoon made quite a splash during its last operative week of September (September 26 to October 2) delivering rainfall that was 146 per cent above the normal for the country as a whole.

Geography-wise distribution made for even more spectacular readings- 504 per cent above normal in North-West India; 231 per cent above normal for Central India; and 97 per cent above normal for East and North-East India.

Productive monsoon

Over the South Peninsula, it was only one per cent above normal, indicating how productive the monsoon had turned out over North India during when it should have been withdrawing from.

The withdrawal has not begun after a month and more, and is now predicted to happen from October 10, as per the latest assessment by India Met Department (IMD).

A lone remnant cyclonic circulation is still holding out over East Uttar Pradesh promising to deliver even more rain for Bihar and and thunderstorms over other parts of East and North-East India for today (Friday).

Dry weather is forecast to prevail over North-West India from October 7, before the ground is set for the withdrawal process of the monsoon gets under way three days later.

An outlook from October 9 to 11 said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall may lash parts of East and adjoining North-East India, which will keep the monsoon withdrawal line away from here.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may lash the rest of the country except over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh where the dry weather is expected to prevail.

Rains for south

Meanwhile, cyclonic circulations and a trough over the South Peninsular would bring light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over the region during this week (October 3 to 9).

States likely getting affected are Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, with the rainfall scaling up in intensity during the second half of the week.

Light isolated rainfall is very likely over remaining parts of the country except West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh, where no rain likely to occur during the second half of the week.

Thus, cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over Karnataka, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Odisha, Jharkhand, Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern States while being below normal to normal elsewhere.

During the subsequent week (October 10 to 16), rainfall activity may be confined to the South Peninsula with normal to above normal rainfall activity over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and most parts of the North-Eastern states.

It is likely to be below normal over remaining parts of the country during the week, the second of the month of October, which normally throws open the window for the North-East monsoon.

Published on October 04, 2019

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