After rattling the country with a sharp surge, Omicron may have crossed the peak stage. But for a handful States that are yet to see the peak in the number of cases, the country as a whole and most States have entered the post-peak phase, according to Sutra, the mathematical model developed by the IIT-H.

The team has come out with its latest analysis of the Omicron numbers emanating from different States.

Projection

This is the fourth projection from the team ever since it started analysing the data from the second week of December 2021 when the Omicron cases started emanating from South Africa.

The latest analysis found that India as a whole and a few States like Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan was in a new phase in January after reaching a peak.

As against its earlier prediction for a peak on January 23, India had peaked on January 25, it said.

However, the new phase is not fully stabilised in the country and in some States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana.

A phase change is indicative of significant change in one or more parameter values such as contact rate, detection factor and reach of the infection.

“Nearly all the regions are showing a phase change during January 9-15. The data is suggesting that this phase change is due to a reduction in contact rate,” the Sutra Consortium said.

Difference

“The main difference between the second wave when the Delta variant was active and now is vaccination coverage. When the Delta variant hit the country, no one but healthcare workers were vaccinated,” Prof. M Vidyasagar told Business Line.

“But by the time Omicron has arrived nearly the entire population is vaccinated with one dose and about 70 per cent with both the doses. Besides, several people got natural immunity to the virus. Besides, Omicron is benign when compared to the Delta variant,” he said.

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