Thanks to lockdown, doubling pace of Covid cases down by a half

After the lockdown was imposed, the number of novel coronavirus cases has been doubling every six days in India. Before the lockdown, the doubling had happened every three days, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).

For instance, on April 8, the total number of confirmed cases stood at 5,274, which doubled to 10,815 on April 14. Earlier, too, the cases had nearly doubled from 241 on March 20 to 485 on March 23.

“The doubling rate is a product of how we are trying to manage the situation at the field level. It is an ongoing process. We will have to be vigilant to decrease the doubling rate further,” said Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, MoHFW.

In 19 States/UTs — Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Puducherry, Bihar, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Assam and Tripura — the doubling is occurring at a slower rate than the national average of six days.

For instance, on April 8, Karnataka recorded 175 cases, against 258 on April 14, a less-than-double increase.

13,835 confirmed cases

As on April 17, India recorded 13,835 confirmed cases of Covid-19, of which 1,767 have recovered and 452 have died.

The growth factor — the proportion of new cases versus the previous day’s — showed a 40 per cent decline, said Agarwal. “Between March 15 and March 31, cases were growing at a growth factor rate of 2.1, which declined to 1.2 from April 1 onwards,” he said.

This even as the number of samples being tested has increased and also includes those who suffer from severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza-like illnesses. The first consignment of five lakh rapid antibody kits used for mass surveillance will be distributed among States, Agarwal said.

None of the potential drugs is fully proven to work against Covid-19, Agarwal said, adding: “If they are not being manufactured in India, we need to work towards making them available.”

Drug manufacture

Agarwal also said that the Centre for Science and Industrial Research is looking at possible research for indigenous manufacturing of favipiravir and umefenovir — drugs that are at present not proven to be effective but are being looked at as experimental treatments for Covid-19.

Earlier, Health Minister Harsh Vardhan chaired the 12th meeting of the Group of Ministers (GoM) on Covid-19. The GoM held a detailed discussion on the impact of the extended lockdown and creating a roadmap for the subsequent period. It also reviewed the efforts made by science & technology institutions to deal with Covid-19 in terms of diagnosis, vaccines, drugs, hospital equipment accessories and general wellness.

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