Monsoon downgrade. Private forecaster Skymet downgrades monsoon forecast to below normal

Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services Private Limited has downgraded its forecast for the South-West Monsoon this year.

Monsoon, a key element of India’s agricultural production particularly kharif crops, has now been forecast at 94 per cent of the long period average (LPA). In a press release, Skymet said there is a 60 per cent chance for the monsoon to be six percentage points lower than the LPA rainfall of 880.6 mm. The forecast, however, has an error margin of plus or minus four per cent.

Though the south-west monsoon, which accounts for 75 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall, set in on time over Kerala this year, it ran into problems from the third week of June with a “break” that lasted until the second week of July.

Skymet said that rainfall in June was 110 per cent of the LPA and the “break” resulted in a weak start in July. The “break” phase of monsoon lasted till July 11 and rainfall that month was 93 per cent of the LPA.

Monsoon encountered another “break” phase during the first fortnight of this month and this has resulted in rainfall across the country being nine per cent deficient till date. “The below normal status of monsoon has not improved till now,” Skymet said.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) data showed that till Monday, rainfall pan-India was 594.5 mm against the LPA of 652.2 mm. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country, 16 are largely deficient and nine are deficient. Two sub-divisions have received normal rainfall, four excess and five large excess.

The deficient rainfall will likely affect Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala and North-East India. Chances of Gujarat and West Rajasthan facing drought appear imminent, the private forecaster said.

But, the spatial distribution of rainfall over rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production in the agriculture bowl of central parts of the country may not be stressed and skewed.

Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said: "The weakness in monsoon could possibly be attributed to prolonged negative phase of IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) in the Indian Ocean and extended break conditions. There is still no clear signal about the emergence of IOD in September.”

Skymet updated its forecast on Monday after it released its monsoon “foreshadow” for this year on April 13. The agency said rainfall this month could be 80 per cent of the LPA with 80 per cent chance of deficient rainfall. For September, the private forecaster sees a 60 per cent chance of a normal rainfall of 170.2 mm.

Skymet has, however, ruled out any chance of excess rainfall this year. This year’s forecast of rainfall being lower than the LPA comes after two years of excess monsoon.

Rainfall last year was 109 per cent of the LPA and in 2019, it was 110 per cent. India Meteorological Department data show that over the past decade, the country received deficient rainfall under the South-West monsoon during six years with the worst being 14 per cent deficient rainfall in 2015.

The South-West Monsoon is crucial for the Indian rural livelihood as 48 per cent of the area under food crops and 68 per cent of the non-food crops area is rainfed. The “break” phases in monsoon has resulted in kharif crops coverage slipping 1.5 per cent to 1043.87 lakh hectares (lh) against last year’s 1,060. 37 lh. Coarse cereals, cotton and oilseeds crops have been mainly affected by monsoon’s erratic behaviour this year.

One assuring factor is that the country is no more solely dependent on the Kharif crops for its agricultural production. Since 2009-10, rabi production has either matched or exceeded kharif output, though wheat has proved to be the major contributor.

Monsoon is crucial for rural India as nearly 60 per cent of its households depend on agriculture.

A good crop supplemented by remunerative price like 2019 Rabi harvest will mean that at the end of the day, the grower will have some money to splash around. Farmers typically buy vehicles, including cars and two-wheelers, gold, white goods like refrigerators and washing machines, construction — either buying land or extending their houses — and gold, particularly when a marriage is round the corner in the family.

A good monsoon and a resultant remunerative return to the farmer means a buoyant rural economy. When demand kicks in the rural economy, it lights up the whole economy, increases industrial production, provides more employment and keeps the market vibrant. The equities and gold market also shine in the bargain.

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