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The depression over North-West Bay of Bengal crossed the Odisha coast and dumped some of the heaviest rainfall over Odisha and Chhattisgarh on the first day of its stay over land.
By Sunday noon, the system lay centred over South-West Jharkhand and adjoining North Odisha and close to Jamshedpur and 100 km East-South-East of Ranchi.
The India Met Department (IMD) expects the prodigiously rain-driving system to maintain its intensity until Monday even as it moves further west-north-west before weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area.
This track would likely take it towards Sigarauli, Gwalior and Kota. Here, its monsoon easterlies could run into westerlies from the Arabian Sea, leading to a flare-up in the form of heavy localised rainfall.
The westerlies would cause the low-pressure area (from the earlier depression) to move back north-east towards Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in that order, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
By then, the monsoon trough would also have moved to the North, significantly reducing rainfall once again over Central India, the peninsula and along the West Coast.
IMD forecast
As for Monday, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls over West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha; heavy to very heavy rain over central Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Chhattisgarh, and east Madhya Pradesh.
Heavy rain is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Odisha, hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Telangana, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat region, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Rainfall deficit
The rainfall deficit for the country as a whole fell by one percentage point to 3 per cent on Sunday, with Odisha dramatically improving its position to ‘rainfall normal’ with a surplus of +16 per cent.
Neighbouring Chhattisgarh too is now under ‘normal’ (+4 per cent) though east Madhya Pradesh next door has a deficit of 6 per cent while still being classified under ‘normal’ category.
Still in deficit are West Uttar Pradesh (-39 per cent), East UTtar Pradesh (-45 per cent), Bihar (-47 per cent), Jharkhand (-38 per cent), Bengal (-22 per cent) and the North-East States.
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