Normal to above normal rainfall is being indicated for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Sri Lanka until November 21-22 as the North-East monsoon scales up in the South.

A fresh depression forming in the East-Central Arabian Sea on Thursday signalled of the peaking of the monsoon.

Fresh depression

The depression is moving away from the Indian coast towards Oman-Yemen, and is expected to intensify as a deep depression by Friday with further prospects of strengthening.

The Bay of Bengal also is switching into action mode with a rain-generating easterly wave is in the making, with its front-end eyeing the Sri Lanka coast.

Easterly waves need constant watch since they evolve by the hour and can throw up the odd storm/cyclone in the form of an embedded weather system.

These waves are known to bring heavy to very showers to Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala and will likely turn in an encore this time round too.

Likely storm

An analysis by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology indicates that this would be on show for a period of five days from Saturday (November 7).

As if on cue, India Met Department too suspects the generation of a likely storm off the Sri Lanka coast by November 10 (Tuesday next) and its movement in a west-northwest direction towards the Tamil Nadu coast. The storm, a likely depression, will barrel towards the South-East coast of Tamil Nadu (the Nagapattinam-Puducherry stretch) and make a landfall the next day. It will bring heavy to very heavy showers all along the Tamil Nadu coast, heaviest towards the South, South Interior and adjoining Kerala, if Met projections are anything to go by.

The US Climate Prediction Centre expects Sri Lanka to hit by very heavy rains and excessive flooding during the next fortnight ending November 17.

Rain for North

Meanwhile, over North-West India, the western disturbance activity also is seen peaking in tandem with the busying weather to the South of the country.

Above normal rainfall/snow is being indicated for the next 10 days for the hills and the plains of the North-West, an outlook from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said.

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