Early trends in Satta Bazar, the illegal betting market, say that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will retain power in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's largest state, alibit with a lower number of seats than the 2017 assembly elections. And in Punjab, the bookies are predicting a hung assembly with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) cornering the largest number of seats. Both UP and Punjab state elections will be held in February and March in multiple phases but the bookies have started accepting the bets from this week, sources in the know told BusinessLine.

The betting mafia is expecting their turnover to cross ₹50,000 crore this election season, the sources said. Also, the betting odds may change as election days near and each party makes a high pitched appeal to the voters. According to the bookies, who are mainly politically connected people, the recent farmer protests have dented the BJP’s prospects in both the States.

Odds offered on UP outcome

In UP, the BJP is expected to win more than 250 seats that will take them well past the halfway mark to form the government.

In 2017 UP state elections, the BJP won 312 out of the 403 assembly seats. But the bookies are expecting the party to take a hit of 50 to 60 seats in 2022 polls as there is a view that most seats in the densely populated Muslim areas in Western UP will go to the Samajwadi Party (SP) due to the high pitched CAA and farmer protests cutting some ground there. The SP's tally is likely to go up from 47 last time to around 100 now, sources said.

The bookies will pay 0.20 paise over an above every Rupee bet on the BJP winning at least 200 seats in the UP. Similarly, the payout will be ₹1.15 over a Rupee for betting on BJP winning 222 seats. On SP managing to win 125 seats the bookies are willing to pay ₹1.40 over every Rupee. The payout offer is lower at 0.35 paise over a Rupee for betting on SP winning 110 seats. Higher the payout, lower are the odds of the party winning that many seats. Often, the bookies do not offer odds on both maximum and minimum number of seats (as per their expectations) to manage their losses or outgo in case of extreme results.

The Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party are expected to be restricted to 5 to 10 seats each in UP while the Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is not expected to make much impact in terms of taking away the Muslim votes from the SP, the sources said.

"These are early trends and the final outcome could swing depending on what the BJP does in the next two months that will also see the announcement of the Union Budget on February 1. You cannot write-off PM Modi's trait in surprising the voters and swinging their opinion in BJP's favour," said a source close to the top bookies.

Odds on Punjab outcome

In the 117-seat Punjab assembly, bookies are expecting both AAP and Congress to win a maximum of 40 seats each and minimum of 25 seats. BJP and Akali Dal are expected to perform poorly with both being restricted to 5 to 10 seats each, going purely by the odds. However, the bookies say these are early trends and the odds could change once more clarity emerges on BJPs tie-up with Captain Amrinder Singh, former state CM who left the Congress this year.

How the odds are stacked?

UP Polls - 403 seats

BJP

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

200 - 0.20

210 - 0.35

215 - 0.57

222 - 1.15

SP

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

110 - 0.35

115- 0.60

120 - 1.05

125 - 1.40

BSP

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

5 - 0.4

10 - 0.67

15 - 1.10

Congress

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

5 - 0.55

6 - 0.70

8 - 1.00

10- 2.5

Punjab Polls - Total Number of seats 117

AAP

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

25 - 0.35

30 - 0.4

35 - 0.87

40 - 1.15

Congress

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

25- 0.45

30 - 0.57

35 - 0.90

40 - 1.35

Akali

Expected Seats Odds (Rupee)

5 - 0.35

10 - 0.57

15 - 0.87

20 - 1.20

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