The current global food system, without any major changes, could lead to rapid and widespread biodiversity loss, according to new research published in Nature Sustainability.

The international research team led by the University of Leeds and the University of Oxford found that the global food system needs to be transformed to prevent habitat loss across the world.

Dr David Williams, from Leeds' School of Earth and Environment, and the Sustainability Research Institute who is the lead author of the paper said, “We estimated how agricultural expansion to feed an increasingly wealthy global population is likely to affect about 20,000 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians”..

"Our research suggests that without big changes to food systems, millions of square kilometres of natural habitats could be lost by 2050. Nearly 1,300 species are likely to lose at least a quarter of their remaining habitat, and hundreds could lose at least half. This makes them far more likely to go extinct,” he said.

"Ultimately, we need to change what we eat and how it is produced if we're going to save wildlife on a global scale. We need to alter both our diets and food production methods," he added.

Conserving biodiversity

The study aims to understand the impact of food systems on biodiversity by linking projections of how much agricultural land each country will require with a new model that estimates where agricultural expansion and abandonment are most likely to occur.

Researchers looked at the possibility of individual animal species surviving in farmland and estimated the changes in habitat. They found that habitat losses were particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of Central and South America.

“Many of the species that are likely to be most affected are not listed as threatened with extinction, and so are unlikely to be currently targeted by conservationists,” as per the study.

Dr Michael Clark, from Oxford Martin School and Nuffield Department of Population Health, the University of Oxford who is also a lead author on the paper said, "As international biodiversity targets are set to be updated in 2021, these results highlight the importance of proactive efforts to safeguard biodiversity by reducing demand for agricultural land.”

"Discussions on slowing and reversing biodiversity often focus on conventional conservation actions, such as establishing new protected areas or species-specific legislation for threatened species. These are absolutely needed, and have been effective at conserving biodiversity,” he said.

"However, our research emphasises the importance of also reducing the ultimate stresses to biodiversity--such as agricultural expansion. The good news is that if we make ambitious changes to the food system, then we can prevent almost all these habitat losses," he added.

The study also analysed the potential impact of making such changes by modelling whether the shift to healthy diets, reductions in food loss and waste, increases in crop yields, and international land-use planning could help reduce future biodiversity losses.

“Importantly, we need to do all of these things. No one approach is sufficient on its own. But, with global coordination and rapid action, it should be possible to provide healthy diets for the global population in 2050 without major habitat losses," Dr Clark further said.

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