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Weather models are of the view that the Bay of Bengal, which is literally on a binge, would support strong monsoon conditions over the country for the next fortnight as well. Also, a latest low-pressure area from the Bay rains it down over Central India and adjoining North-West India, and a successor ‘low’ is expected to pop up in the next two days.
The country has received surplus rainfall of one per cent as of Sunday night, with token deficits still being reported from individual Met subdivisions spread out farther between and apart.
More rain forecast
The Met subdivisions are Uttarakhand-Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh-West Uttar Pradesh in North-West India; Jharkhand and Bengal in East India; Marathwada in the North Peninsula; and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura in North-East India. But even these regions can hope for rains as the next ‘low’ looms in the North-West Bay and travels West-North-West across East and Central India.
An India Met Department (IMD) update on Monday morning located the prevailing ‘low’ over the central parts of Madhya Pradesh. It has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over West Rajasthan and Gujarat for today.
A similar forecast is valid for Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan for today and tomorrow as the successor ‘low’ brews.
Excess rain trend
Already, an extended range forecast by the IMD has predicted excess rainfall for Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Tripura and Mizoram during the ongoing week (August 22 to 28) ending on Wednesday.
Normal rainfall is forecast over East Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the period while the rest of the country may experience below normal rainfall. Forecast for the next week (August 29 to September 4) sees excess rainfall for Konkan, Goa, Goa, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and the North-Eastern states.
Normal rains are likely over Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, plains of Bengal, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala while it would be below normal for the rest of the country during this period.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service suggests that the Bay would stay active even into the middle of September sending out even more ‘low’s.
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