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A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggested that the role played by Covid-19 super spreading events in the transmission of the virus is much bigger than previously expected, EurekAlert! reported.
The researchers conducted the study of about 60 super-spreading events to show that events where one person infects more than six other people are much more common than expected. This is if the range of transmission rates followed statistical distributions commonly used in epidemiology.
The researchers also developed a mathematical model of Covid-19 transmission. They showed through the model that limiting gatherings to 10 or fewer people could significantly lower the rate of infection.
Senior author James Collins, the Termeer Professor of Medical Engineering and Science at MIT’s Institute for Medical Engineering said: “Super-spreading events are likely more important than most of us had initially realised.”
He added: “Even though they are extreme events, they are probable and thus are likely occurring at a higher frequency than we thought. If we can control the super-spreading events, we have a much greater chance of getting this pandemic under control.”
The researchers noted in their study that the SARS-CoV-2’s “basic reproduction number” is around three, meaning that on average, each person infected with the virus will spread it to about three other people.
However, this number flares up in the case of “super-spreaders” who can infect dozens of people, six or more.
Lead author and MIT postdoc Felix Wong said: “We figured that an analysis that’s rooted in looking at super-spreading events and how they happened in the past can inform how we should propose strategies of dealing with, and better controlling, the outbreak.”
He added: “These really large super-spreading events, with between 10 and 100 people infected, are much more common than we had anticipated.”
The findings suggest that preventing super-spreading events could have a significant impact on the overall transmission of Covid-19, the researchers say.
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